Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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086 FXUS64 KTSA 080826 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 326 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today) Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 Warm front currently across SE OK is lifting northward with intense warm moist advection ongoing in its advance courtesy of 50-6kt low level jet. A zone across far northern OK / southern KS is currently coupled within the favorable jet dynamics and the low level warm advection and this corridor will become the near term focus for storm initiation as it expands eastward through the morning. The reservoir of strong instability is expanding northward associated with the airmass change and any early morning storms could become severe with large hail the primary hazard. Any early day storms may continue to fester along and north of the lifting warm front with the focus becoming more north of the forecast area by early afternoon. A lull in convective coverage is likely through mid afternoon as lift remains negligible across the warm sector. The cold front associated withe passing wave will be making slow but steady progress eastward through the day and will eventually become the focus for renewed storm initiation by mid to late afternoon. Veering low level winds ahead of the front will limit frontal convergence and there is potential for a pre- frontal corridor of storms to develop. Once convective temps are reached by late afternoon and any weak frontal forcing arrives storms are expected to rapidly develop and quickly become severe from NW AR into SE OK. Forecast soundings are strongly unstable with ample deep layer shear for quick supercell evolution. Sounding analogs support potential for giant hail in the strongest storms with locally damaging winds also possible. The tornadic risk is somewhat tempered by lesser low level shear, however the presence of strong low level cape and any more deviant storm motions could locally raise the tornadic potential. Storms move east of the forecast area by mid evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday) Issued at 302 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 The cold front will stall across central TX on Thursday with the elevated frontal zone remaining near far SE OK where a low chance of thunderstorms will exist. Otherwise, dry, cooler, and quiet weather conditions will overspread the region especially Friday and Saturday. Thunderstorm chances steadily increase and spread eastward for early next week. At this time the pattern does not favor organized severe weather. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024 VFR elements will prevail for the first 6 hours or so of the valid period at all sites except KMLC where an increase in MVFR cigs before 12z is likely. Will also include WS remark at all sites through the 12z-15z time period. A cold front will be moving into the area after 12z, with a brief tempo group in for -TSRA for KTUL and KRVS will be maintained for storms that may develop along the boundary. Better chances for storms will come later this afternoon and will include prob30 groups at the remaining sites. Once the front passes winds will become NW with prevailing VFR TAF elements for the remainder of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 84 54 78 53 / 20 0 0 0 FSM 87 61 82 57 / 50 40 10 10 MLC 87 60 81 55 / 20 10 10 10 BVO 82 49 78 49 / 20 0 0 0 FYV 81 54 78 50 / 60 30 10 0 BYV 81 54 77 51 / 60 40 10 0 MKO 83 55 78 53 / 20 10 10 0 MIO 81 51 76 50 / 40 10 0 0 F10 85 55 78 53 / 20 10 10 0 HHW 86 61 82 58 / 40 30 30 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...23