907
FXUS63 KUNR 041726
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1126 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and windy this weekend

- Strong Storm lifts into Northern Plains Monday/Tuesday;
  Thunderstorms late Sunday/Monday, high winds Tuesday/Wednesday,
  some snow for the Black Hills Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

Current surface map places high across eastern Montana into the
western Dakotas. Skies are mostly clear with temperatures in the
20s to mid 30s. Surface high slides into the eastern Dakotas this
afternoon with southerly winds increasing across northeastern
Wyoming and western South Dakota. Highs mainly in the 60s today.

Upper low tracks through the Great Basin Sunday and swings
through western South Dakota Monday before stalling out along the
northern Montana/North Dakota border early Tuesday. Tight
pressure gradient on Sunday will promote gusty south winds, with
the strongest winds on the plains east of the Black Hills. A few
thunderstorms possible over northeastern Wyoming and Black Hills
Sunday afternoon with narrow axis of buoyancy.

An uptick in thunderstorm activity is expected Sunday night/early
Monday with strong QG forcing. Buoyancy/shear favorable for a few
strong/severe storms along dryline surge Monday over south
central South Dakota. Widespread rains with deformation zone will
set up northwest of the forecast area on Tuesday, with shower
activity mainly limited to parts of northeastern Wyoming into
northwestern South Dakota. Strong westerly winds expected on
Tuesday, with the strongest winds on the plains north of the Black
Hills. As the low weakens and slowly drifts southeast
Wednesday, showers will spread southward across the forecast area.
Thermal profiles support some snow for the higher elevations of
the Black Hills late Tuesday into Wednesday with minor
accumulations possible.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1125 AM MDT Sat May 4 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Some low-
level wind shear may develop after 06Z Sunday, especially over the
foothills and western SD plains.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...Dye