Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FXUS61 KCLE 231125
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
725 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure from the western Great Lakes will move across the area
today through Thursday and then off the east coast on Friday. A
weak warm front will develop over the midwest and move to the lower
Great Lakes this weekend and become nearly stationary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Fog has been patchy and shallow across northwest Ohio and
should dissipate quickly. Made some minor hourly temperature
adjustments downward across northeast OH and northwest PA where
the stratus is holding tight. Temps will be slow to rise for a
while this morning until the clouds begin to thin. No other
changes for the early morning update.

Original NEAR TERM Discussion...
Lingering stratocumulus and stratus should dissipate or transition
to fair weather cumulus pretty quickly this morning as mixing
and subsidence increases - model soundings show it to be quite
dry aloft. Fog across lower MI will expand into western Lucas
County as well as Wood County and possibly the neighboring
counties of northwest Ohio. Daybreak is not far off and thinking
that the fog may be dense in a few spots but likely not widespread.
High temperatures today will likely be a few degrees above normal
except for a cool north breeze off Lake Erie.

Ridging will increase aloft tonight and Thursday and the
surface high will slide east of the area on Thursday.
Temperatures should drop nicely tonight with prime radiational
cooling conditions. The ENE flow on Thursday may keep temps in
check especially near the Lake Erie lake shore but we should be
able to see upper 70s and lower 80s in most areas with
essentially no clouds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A quiet end to the week will give way to precip chances this
weekend, as high pressure centered off the mid Atlantic coast will
promote return flow into the region. Dry conditions are expected
Thursday night through Friday night, however precip chances will
increase Saturday as a warm front will lift north through the area
as low pressure tracks east into the western Great Lakes. Relatively
unstable conditions by Saturday afternoon will promote scattered
shower/t-storm activity, mainly diurnally driven, through the day on
Sunday. Have handled this with chance pops through this period,
until a weak cold front moves east of the area by Sunday night as
the low tracks into the eastern Great Lakes. There is some
uncertainty with the timing of this system due to model differences,
but confident enough in at least chance pops with the region in the
warm sector.

Temperatures will be above normal through the period. Have went a
few degrees warmer than the previous forecast for highs Friday and
Saturday, favoring warmer MOS guidance. Highs will generally be in
the mid to upper 80s across the area. Temperatures Sunday are a
touch cooler in the forecast, with low to mid 80s expected with
scattered precip around the area. Lows Thursday night in the mid to
upper 50s will warm into the 60s for the rest of the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A cold front will settle just south of the region in the Monday
through Tuesday timeframe as high pressure builds southeast across
the Great Lakes. Models have a general idea on the pattern, but
subtle differences in timing/location lend to a bit lower confidence
on pops/temps after Sunday night. Have kept slight chance to chance
pops Sunday night through Tuesday to account for the front in the
area. Have kept temperatures similar to previous forecast, with
above normal highs in the low 80s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be
in the low/mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Fog has been patchy and shallow across northwest OH and it will
dissipate quickly this morning. MVFR and IFR ceilings will
linger a couple of hours longer than earlier forecast this
morning across northeast OH and northwest PA but drier air will
mix down this morning and expecting VFR conditions to return to
all TAF sites by midday. High pressure will move almost
overhead tonight with clear skies. The light north wind will
become light and variable tonight.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR possible by Sunday in showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Quiet conditions on the lake through the period as high pressure
slowly builds southeast across the lake today through Thursday
night. This will keep winds fairly light and variable into Friday. A
warm front will lift north across the lake Friday night into
Saturday as low pressure tracks into the western Great Lakes. Winds
will increase out of the south by Friday, but will remain 10 kts or
less through the weekend.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kosarik
NEAR TERM...Kosarik
SHORT TERM...Greenawalt
LONG TERM...Greenawalt
AVIATION...Kosarik
MARINE...Greenawalt


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