Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 240002
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
702 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Note Aviation Discussion below corresponding to the 00z TAFs.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected during the TAF period, except for brief
MVFR visibilities mainly east of U.S. 281 during the 10-13z
Tuesday period, and brief MVFR ceilings west of S.R. 16 duing the
period 11-14z Tuesday. Light/variable wind overnight/early Tuesday,
then predominate onshore and increasing to moderate levels
Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /Issued 344 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...

High pressure is still in control of our sensible weather for at
least the next 36 hours. The center of the surface ridging will move
overhead tonight into Tuesday allowing winds to really slacken off.
There is a bit of mid/upper level moisture lingering across the
region but ample subsidence looks to keep us mostly clear tonight.
Again with the light winds and clear skies radiational cooling will
be maximized. Slightly higher dewpoints tonight compared to last
night will keep overnight lows just a touch warmer but could also
provide a bit more patchy fog across the interior parts of the
region.

Another beautiful day is expected Tuesday with light winds, mostly
sunny skies, and temperatures warming back into the 80s/low-90s
across the west. Onshore flow increases Tuesday night ahead of the
next cold front and as high pressure exits off the coast. Next shot
of rain, starting off across the west, will be later Wednesday
afternoon as differential heating and upslope flow into the Sierra
Madre`s allows for convection to develop. A weak thermal trough
looks to setup which may shift towards the east during the evening
hours, depending on how strong the low-level south-southeast flow
becomes. Expecting a few storms to drift into the Rio Grande Plains
throughout the afternoon/evening hours, ahead of the ensuing cold
front.

With this northwest flow event we could see areas east of Hwy 281
remain mostly dry with hit or miss showers. The better moisture and
elevated instability looks to be confined across our western areas
where we carry the highest PoPs and QPF for the event. We`ve been
dry for a while so it`s hard to forecast any decent rain, that is
much needed, without a big pattern shift in the works. Surface front
looks to be off the coast by Thursday morning with just some weak
mid-level isentropic lift still occurring so there could be a few
lingering showers through mid-Thursday morning, otherwise we are
drying out.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Monday)...

Drier and cooler air will filter in behind the front on Thursday
with a couple very nice days in store for the end of the work week
under high pressure. The high will then build east into the Gulf
with a steady increase in moisture late Friday through the weekend.
Looks like enough diurnal instability for some convection over the
Sierra Madre on Saturday with potential for the activity to affect
the far west later in the day.  Iso-Sct convection then possible
area-wide on Sunday into Monday with even deeper moisture in place
but with limited forcing.  HPC temps look pretty good through the
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    59  85  64  83  62  /   0   0  10  10  30
Victoria          55  87  61  83  59  /   0   0  10  10  40
Laredo            64  93  68  87  63  /   0   0  10  30  40
Alice             57  90  63  87  62  /   0   0  10  20  40
Rockport          65  79  69  79  61  /   0   0  10  10  30
Cotulla           59  93  64  85  59  /   0   0  10  30  40
Kingsville        58  89  64  86  64  /   0   0  10  10  30
Navy Corpus       66  82  70  81  66  /   0   0  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

WC/87...AVIATION


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