Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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841 FXUS64 KEPZ 130539 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1139 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 126 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Quiet weather conditions the next few days with lighter afternoon winds and warm temperatures. Breezy winds return on Wednesday before a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly over area mountains on Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Upper low currently progressing across the central High Plains with a trough axis extending southwest across New Mexico. Breezy west winds this afternoon, with a few gusts to 30 mph through the evening hours. Winds will lighten again overnight. Weak ridge of high pressure aloft will drive the weather pattern early this week with a weak Pacific low trailing it. Lighter afternoon winds will reduce fire danger and a subtle warming trend should push lowland highs back to the upper 80s/lower 90s Monday through Wednesday. Zone of diffluence aloft ahead of the subtropical low does sag south the middle part of the week, allowing for better low level moisture in southern New Mexico and thus slight chances for showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain. Good confidence in the eventual track of the Pacific low across the Southwest US Wednesday/Thursday. Marginal moisture return from the north may occur with this, allowing for some low-end thunderstorm and rain shower chances over the Gila NF and Lincoln NF. Precipitation chances remain quite low for the El Paso metro through late May. Finally, worth noting that extended models are signaling a warmup next week, possibly into the upper 90s for El Paso. NBM gives El Paso a 29% chance of 100 degrees on May 21st. Not set in stone quite yet, but that time of year to begin monitoring the seasonal warm up toward summer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions through the period with FEW100-SCT250. Mainly from the Rio Grande Valley east...SCT-BKN100 BKN250 until around 12Z. Surface winds west/northwest AOB 8 knots. Developing after 18Z mainly over Grant and Sierra Counties...SCT-BKN080 BKN200 with a few showers or virga possible. Surface winds west 8-1 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 126 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024 Lighter winds on Monday will reduce fire danger below Elevated criteria. Northwest flow 10 to 15 mph during the afternoon will lead to Very Good smoke ventilation. Remaining dry with min RH 10-20%. Winds pick back up on Wednesday out of the southwest, leading to more Elevated conditions. No fire headlines expected at this time. Approaching Pacific low and a moisture intrusion from the north may result in scattered showers and thunderstorms over the National Forests on Thursday, leading to a risk of lightning starts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 61 90 62 93 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 55 83 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 55 88 56 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 51 84 54 88 / 0 10 0 0 Cloudcroft 39 62 42 65 / 0 10 0 10 Truth or Consequences 55 83 56 87 / 0 10 0 0 Silver City 49 78 52 80 / 0 10 0 0 Deming 51 87 52 90 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 50 85 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 58 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 50 87 52 92 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 89 55 93 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 54 80 57 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 56 89 56 93 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 52 85 54 88 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 60 86 62 90 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 49 85 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 50 87 52 91 / 0 10 0 0 Columbus 56 86 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 53 84 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 44 72 45 77 / 0 10 0 10 Mescalero 42 72 45 76 / 0 10 0 10 Timberon 42 71 44 75 / 0 10 0 0 Winston 46 77 49 78 / 0 10 0 10 Hillsboro 52 82 53 85 / 0 10 0 0 Spaceport 47 84 50 87 / 10 10 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 79 46 81 / 0 10 0 10 Hurley 46 82 49 84 / 0 10 0 0 Cliff 48 85 52 87 / 0 10 0 0 Mule Creek 49 81 52 83 / 0 10 0 0 Faywood 50 80 52 83 / 0 10 0 0 Animas 50 85 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 51 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 50 85 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 79 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...36-Texeira