Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 252329
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

The upper low is making slow progress across ern KS at this time,
with lots of light showers rotating around the slow moving system.
System will make slow progress to the E-SE late this afternoon, with
precip ending from NW to SE.

Expect most of the light rain from the departing system to exit most
of the forecast area by this evening. Clearing and subsidence on the
backside of the system will move over the area overnight, with
clearing skies and light winds. This will lead to a nice radiational
cooling for most areas, with min temps falling into the middle 30s
for portions of central KS, especially for areas north of highway
50. Could see some patchy fog across southern ks given the recent
rainfall and temps falling into the lower 40s, with surface
dewpoints still in the lower 40s.  Will also add some patchy/areas
of frost for portions of central KS, given that the growing season
has begun with the rapid greenup from the recent rains and temps
falling into the middle 30s. Plan on issuing a Frost advisory for 5
or 6 counties in central KS as well.

The next shortwave (currently located in nrn MT), will drop SE into
the plains by Thu afternoon.  This next shortwave will trek
southeast across the plains, but current model trends suggest this
system will come through a little further to the NE than the
previous one. Moisture with this system is rather limited, but
bufkit soundings are alot more saturated/wetter than current model
QPF amounts suggest. So will carry at least a slight pop for light
rain or sprinkles as this system moves southeast. Rainfall amounts
will be very light, under a few hundredths.

Mid level ridging looks to move across the region for the end of the
week into the weekend.  As this ridge moves over the area, southerly
winds will return to the area with a warming trend expected for the
weekend with dry conditions.

Ketcham

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Mid to upper flow looks to shift to more of a southwest flow pattern
by the end of the weekend into the beginning of next week. This
pattern change will open up the Gulf of Mexico with richer spring-
like moisture streaming northward into Kansas for next week. The
pattern looks to become unsettled for Mon thru Wed, with ingredients
in place for thunderstorms and possible severe weather to affect the
southern/central plains. Latest medium range model projections are
favoring a Tue-Wed period next week for possible active weather, and
this will be a period to watch over the upcoming days.

Ketcham

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

A mid/upper trough over the Middle Mississippi Valley area this
evening will continue moving south and east away from the area
allowing any lingering light rain showers to diminish across
southeast KS during the evening hours. Clouds and MVFR cigs will
also diminish from west to east as high pressure builds into the
region. Fog is expected to develop along the sfc ridge axis,
mainly impacting south central KS where some clearing is expected
initially during the evening hours which should quickly saturate
the pbl resulting in areas of fog and possible IFR/LIFR through
13-14Z before quickly mixing out.

Another progressive shortwave trough will dig across the area on
Thu shifting winds to the northwest around midday across central
KS and later in the afternoon/early evening across south central
and southeast KS. Precipitation chances are expected to remain
fairly low with this next system although an increase in mid
clouds is likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Fire weather concerns will remain low across the region for the next
four days due to rainfall today, followed by lighter winds for
Thursday-Saturday. South winds will begin to increase for Sunday
into next week, however the low level moisture will also increase
which should raise the relative humidity levels. The grassland fire
danger levels could reach very high levels during the afternoon
hours on Sunday-Tuesday for mainly central Kansas.

Jakub

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    38  69  41  70 /   0  10  10   0
Hutchinson      36  68  39  70 /   0  10  10   0
Newton          37  69  38  69 /   0  10  10   0
ElDorado        38  69  40  69 /  10  10  10   0
Winfield-KWLD   38  70  40  69 /   0  10  10   0
Russell         35  65  35  72 /   0  20   0   0
Great Bend      36  66  37  71 /   0  10   0   0
Salina          36  67  38  72 /   0  10   0   0
McPherson       35  68  37  69 /   0  10   0   0
Coffeyville     44  70  44  69 /  60  10  10   0
Chanute         42  68  43  69 /  70  10  10   0
Iola            41  68  42  68 /  70  10  10   0
Parsons-KPPF    43  69  43  69 /  80  10  10   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-
047>050.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ketcham
LONG TERM...Ketcham
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...CJ



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