Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
AXGM70 PGUM 260611
DGTGUM
PMZ181-GUZ001>004-030200-
MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
400 PM CHST THU APR 26 2018

...RAINFALL RECOVERING TO NEAR-NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN MARSHALL AND MARIANA
ISLANDS...

SYNOPSIS...
THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL
IN MAY AND REMAIN IN ENSO-NEUTRAL THROUGH SUMMER WITH A TREND TOWARD CONTINUED
ENSO-NEUTRAL OR WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS IN THE FALL. MORE SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY
FALLEN OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. PERIODS OF
DRY WEATHER MAY STILL OCCUR...BUT UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS SHOULD BEGIN
TO MIGRATE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE TROPICAL UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH. THESE WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL HELP BRING SPRING AND SUMMER
RAINS BACK TO NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA.

SATELLITE AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AT TIMES OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND MARSHALL ISLANDS IN THE COMING
DAYS. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS OVER NORTHERN YAP STATE AND THE
REPUBLIC OF PALAU BUT THE REST OF MICRONESIA HAS HAD ADEQUATE RAINFALL.

THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES THAT
ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS CONTINUED AT UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS...THEY REMAIN CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY DO-L (LONG-TERM DROUGHT
LEVEL 0 OF 4) AND RECOVERY CONTINUES AT A SLOW PACE. GUAM...SAIPAN...TINIAN AND
ROTA HAVE IMPROVED FROM MODERATE DROUGHT D1-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4)
TO ABNORMALLY DRY D0-S (SHORT-TERM DRYNESS DROUGHT LEVEL 0 OF 4) AND RECOVERY
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

MARSHALL ISLANDS...

FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS...
A FEW MORE SHOWERS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY INTENSITY HAVE OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA
THE LAST FEW DAYS. UTIRIK AND WOTJE AND OTHER ATOLLS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN AND
ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 9N SUCH AS RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK
ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND HAVE RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS RECENTLY. RAINFALL SHOULD
GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL.

OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...SUFFICIENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED
FOR MAJURO...ARNO...NAMU... MILI...JALUIT AND AILINGALAPLAP AND THESE LOCATIONS
HAVE HAD ADEQUATE RAINFALL TO AVERT ANY DROUGHT IMPACTS.

MARIANA ISLANDS...

GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS(CNMI)...
PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS
SO THAT GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN ARE NO LONGER IN MODERATE DROUGHT BUT
ARE NOW CLASSIFIED AS ABNORMALLY DRY. THERE MAY STILL BE SHORT PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER IN THE COMING WEEKS BUT THE RECENT IMPROVEMENT IN RAINFALL SHOULD
DOMINATE.

IN PARTICULAR FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES WAS GREATER
THAN USUAL EARLIER IN THE YEAR. VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE NOW AND SOME WELLS NEAR THE COAST MAY NEED MORE TIME TO RECOVER. GUAM
AND THE POPULATED CNMI ISLANDS HAD A SEVERE WILDFIRE SEASON BUT NOW THE
WILDFIRE DANGER LEVEL HAS IMPROVED.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...
THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO A MORE SEASONAL AND FAVORABLE PATTERN AND
RECENTLY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA.
COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS STILL INDICATE THAT THE
CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN
MAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE SUMMER.

SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS...

                  JAN   FEB    MAR   NORMAL %NORMAL  APR  NORMAL %NORMAL
                 (1-31) 1-28) (1-31) (1-31) (1-31)  (1-25)(1-25) (1-25)

UTIRIK            3.56  0.61   8.50   2.44     348   3.50  2.55   137
WOTJE             4.37  2.00  10.61   2.03     522   6.71  2.93   229
KWAJALEIN/EBEYE  14.46  4.20  15.55   3.56     437   7.61  5.17   147
MAJURO           15.76  8.29  22.54   7.55     299   9.81  8.03   122
SAIPAN            2.97  2.25   0.93   1.93      48   8.09  1.93   419
TINIAN            3.94  2.29   0.94   2.40      39   8.79  2.26   389
ROTA              2.24  2.39   1.55   3.05      51   7.03  3.88   181
GUAM AP           0.94  2.68   1.40   2.77      51   6.80  2.98   228
WOLEAI ATOLL     14.45  2.72   6.32   8.20      77   9.59  7.03   136
YAP              11.64  8.44  12.29   5.34     230   3.80  4.77    80

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
ATMOSPHERIC WINDS AND MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD MORE SEASONAL
PATTERNS. CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NEAR-NORMAL IN
THE COMING WEEKS.

THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...

ISLANDS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN...
SATELLITE AND OBSERVER REPORTS SHOWED THAT RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES FELL
OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS THIS PAST WEEK. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE
MORE SHOWERS WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND NEAR-NORMAL RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE YEAR.

RAINFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK) IS EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM 1 INCH TO 2 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. RAINFALL OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IS LIKELY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL
ISLANDS THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS THROUGH 10 MAY.

ISLANDS SOUTH OF 10N NOT INCLUDING MAJURO...
RAINFALL WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH AND AREAS FROM NEAR KWAJALEIN TO
WOTJE WILL RECEIVE AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES DURING THE NEXT WEEK WITH VARIABLE
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH 10 MAY.

CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO...
RAINFALL FOR MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS WILL
BE SUBSTANTIAL AND RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES UNTIL 3 MAY AND 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM
TODAY UNTIL 10 MAY.

THE MARIANA ISLANDS...

.GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS...
THE WEATHER WILL STILL BE DRY AT TIMES...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE COMING WEEKS. GRADUALLY IMPROVING RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED FOR THE MARIANAS.

RAINFALL FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN SHOULD RANGE FROM A HALF INCH TO
ONE AND A HALF INCHES FOR THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS AND 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS UNTIL 10 MAY. RAINFALL FOR ISLANDS FARTHER
NORTH OF SAIPAN WILL BE FAIRLY LOW WITH ONLY A HALF INCH TO ONE INCH FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS UNTIL 3 MAY AND THEN 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH 10 MAY.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...
DROUGHT RECOVERY WILL REQUIRE MORE TIME IN SOME AREAS...BUT CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN IMPROVING AND THIS IS THE LAST SCHEDULED DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR
THIS EVENT. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR
YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT
INFORMATION.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE
FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...
DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE
CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/

NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING...
THE CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE SOUTH OF 10N FROM 130E TO 170E. THIS
INCLUDES SOUTHERN PALAU AND PARTS OF CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. SEE
NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP FOR
MORE INFORMATION

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO
APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND
SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE
AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND KOROR PALAU. ALSO THE USAID
SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM
AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232
HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV
(LOWER CASE LETTERS)

GUARD/SIMPSON/LANDER

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.