Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3
000
FGUS71 KBUF 261405
ESFBUF
NYC003-009-011-013-029-037-045-049-051-055-063-069-073-075-117-
121-281415-

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1005 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...NEAR NORMAL FLOOD RISK THROUGH MAY 10TH...

This is the ninth flood potential outlook of the 2018 season. Flood
outlooks will be issued every two weeks into early spring to
summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for flooding.
The outlooks are based on current and forecast hydrometeorological
conditions. This includes snow cover and water equivalent, creek and
river levels and the amount of ice on them, along with the expected
conditions during the next two weeks.

..CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...

There remains some snow pack across the higher terrain across the
western Adirondacks and Tug Hill. Snow depth and snow water
equivalent (SWE) values vary considerably, with the majority of
the Black River Basin snow-free. However, where there is still
snow pack, there remains an average of 2 to 4 inches of SWE. This
covers less than 25 percent of the entire Black River basin.

For the rest of the area, any remaining snow pack is negligible.

The following is a summary of the conditions collected between
April 24-26th:

...BUFFALO AREA CREEKS / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.
.CREEK FLOWS.........Above normal.
.CREEK ICE...........None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...GENESEE RIVER BASIN / FINGER LAKES / ROCHESTER AREA...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Above normal.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...ALLEGHENY RIVER BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........None.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Near normal.
.RIVER CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...BLACK RIVER BASINS / TUG HILL...
.SNOW COVER..........None at lower elevations. Patchy 6-12 inches
across the Tug Hill and Adirondacks.
.WATER EQUIVALENT....None at lower elevations. Patchy 2-4 inches on
the Tug Hill and Adirondacks.
.RIVER/CREEK FLOWS...Above normal.
.RIVER/CREEK ICE.....None.
.GROUND FROST........None.
.GROUND STATE........Saturated.

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The period will start off cool and wet, with below normal
temperatures and frequent chances for showers through the upcoming
weekend. It may even be cold enough for snow showers at times. However,
this pattern should not tap into much Gulf moisture so rainfall
totals should be modest. Then a warm and dry pattern will develop for
the first half of next week. This should gradually melt off
whatever snow pack remains.

After this, an active pattern is expected with above normal
precipitation favored in the 8 to 14 day outlook. At this time,
long range model guidance shows a deep but progressive mid- level
trough moving from west to east across the U.S. This may result
in some significant rain, but if it remains progressive amounts
would be somewhat limited.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

There is a near normal risk for flooding during the outlook period.

By this time of year, the flood risk typically diminishes since most
snow pack is usually melted. There remains some snow pack in the
Black River basin and flows are currently above normal there due
to recent rain and snow melt. Light additional rainfall through
this weekend is likely to result in high flows to action stage,
but is not likely to push any point to flood. After this, warm
temperatures will likely result in additional snow melt and
maintain high flows in the Black River basin into next week.

After this, the flood potential mainly stems from uncertainty in the
long range forecast. With high flows and saturated soil conditions,
it would not take too much rain to result in flooding. There is a
small risk of this, but it depends on how quickly a system next
week moves. Most of this risk is confined to the Black River.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...

Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for specific
locations along rivers across Western New York can be found on the
internet at www.weather.gov/buf. Since conditions can change, please
refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and statements for
additional information.

This is the final outlook for the 2018 season. Thank you to all the
observers and agencies which have helped gather data in support of
this outlook.

$$

Apffel



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.