Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FNUS53 KAPX 201947
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
347 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

...High pressure builds back into northern lower...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure has once again took control of
northern lower Michigan`s weather. Said high pressure will provide
warm temperatures and mostly precipitation free weather through
Thursday, although there is a chance of precipitation Monday
afternoon, for mainly south of M-55. Humidity levels and
temperature may reach critical thresholds Monday through Thursday,
although winds will remain fairly light. Next chances for more
widespread rain chances will be Friday and through Memorial Day
weekend as a low pressure system meanders over the upper Great
Lakes.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-210815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
347 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....33-38...except around 40 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........84-89 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 11 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 3 mph shifting to the southwest
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent). Areas of frost
                    until 1200.
Max Temperature.....71-76...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........25-30 percent...except 41-46 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming southeast around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (460).
Mixing Height.......3400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 3 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier...except 4 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........39-44 percent...except 54-59 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (460).
Mixing Height.......4100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-210815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
347 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....34-39...except around 41 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........87-92 percent...except 68-73 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier...except 18 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........27-32 percent...except 45-50 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier...except 19 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming east around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (220).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 3 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 9 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.04 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer...except 5 degrees warmer
                    near the coast.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 81-86 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter...except 11 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (50).
Mixing Height.......600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.20 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer.
Min Humidity........42-47 percent...except 58-63 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (570).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-210815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
347 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Patchy frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....32-37...except around 41 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 71-76 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 11 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the east
                    around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Patchy frost
                    until 1200. Slight chance of rain showers after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75...except 51-56 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent...except 47-52 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......19 percent drier...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (280).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent).
Min Temperature.....43-48.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (30).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........45-50 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......20 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    north in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (320).
Mixing Height.......4000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North around 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-210815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
347 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Min Temperature.....34-39.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier...except 7 percent wetter along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....68-73.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent...except 36-41 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......17 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (290).
Mixing Height.......1800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.10 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....45-50.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 7 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (60).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.01-0.21 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent).
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 59-64 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    north in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (350).
Mixing Height.......4600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-210815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
347 PM EDT Sun May 20 2018

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Areas of frost
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......8 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........89-94 percent.
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 3 mph shifting to the south
                    after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.MONDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Patchy frost
                    until 1200. Slight chance of rain showers after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........27-32 percent.
   24 HR Trend......15 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southeast in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Fair (270).
Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northeast around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southeast around 12 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Min Temperature.....44-49.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......East winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (90).
Mixing Height.......800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....East around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........0.04-0.20 in.

.TUESDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent) until 1200, then
                    mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 1200.
Max Temperature.....70-75.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......16 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (560).
Mixing Height.......5800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

TL



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