Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FNUS71 KAKQ 201306
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Nassawango8_20_21_22...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
906 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

Dry conditions will continue today, with minimum relative humidity
values ranging from 25 to 35 percent, though winds will be
lighter along with cooler temperatures. Dry and cool conditions
continue through the weekend.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 10 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......2300-3900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 18 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).............0   1   1   0   0   0   0   0
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................45  47  49  51  52  53  54  54
RH..................45  40  37  34  33  32  31  31
20 FT wind dir......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd......8   8   8   8   8   8   7   7
20 FT wind gust.....20  20  20  20  20  20  15  15
Mix hgt (kft).......2.3 2.5 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9
Transp wind dir.....NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.....21  20  20  20  18  18  20  20
LVORI...............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.................50  48  46  46  47  48  48  47
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....42  43  47  51  52  55  62  66

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......1500-3200 ft AGL decreasing to 300-1100 ft AGL
                    in the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Northwest 8 to 16 mph shifting to the north 3
                    to 6 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).............0   0   0   1   1   1   1   2   2   5   9   12
Weather cov.........
Weather type........
Tstm cov............
Temp................53  52  49  46  44  43  41  40  39  39  38  38
RH..................35  38  44  51  57  60  65  70  73  73  76  79
20 FT wind dir......NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd......6   5   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.....15  15  10  5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Mix hgt (kft).......3.2 2.6 1.9 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.....NW  NW  NW  NW  W   W   NW  NW  N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.....16  14  12  8   6   3   3   5   6   6   6   6
LVORI...............1   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   5
ADI.................53  9   5   4   2   2   2   2   3   3   2   3
Chc of pcpn (%).....0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Haines index........4   3   3   3   3   3   3   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/1000....45  31  19  11  5   2   2   2   2   2   2   2

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Mixing height.......400-2300 ft AGL increasing to 2500-2800 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 7 to 10 mph.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)          6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).............16     23     23     23     23     30
Weather cov.........
Weather type........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov............
Temp................37     40     48     53     57     58
RH..................82     73     49     41     37     34
20 ft wind..........N 4    N 4    N 5    N 5    NW 5   NW 4
20 ft wind gust.....10     10     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)........400    500    1700   2500   2800   2800
Transport wind......N 7    N 10   N 9    NW 8   NW 8   NW 9
LVORI...............5      3      2      2      2      2
ADI.................3      8      21     24     25     27
Chc of pcpn (%).....0      0      0      0      0      0
Haines index........4      4      4      4      5      5
VRate kt-ft/1000....2      5      14     18     20     21

$$
Forecaster...MONTEFUSCO
Requested by...Gabe Cahalan
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807133.1/AKQ
.EMAIL gcahalan@tnc.org



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