Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FNUS73 KBIS 241153
FWSBIS

Spot Forecast for Nelson WPA...USFWS
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 AM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 CDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Skies will be mostly sunny today with south winds
10 to 15 mph. A cold front in western North Dakota will move east
and pass through the burn area around 6 pm CDT. A wind shift to
the southwest this evening. The front will also be the focus for
scattered thunderstorms this evening. Severe weather is possible
with large hail and damaging wind gusts.

This afternoon`s minimum relative humidity will be around 44 percent.

Tonight scattered thunderstorms will be moving through with the
cold front. Winds will shift to the southwest, but not very strong.
Highs Friday will be near 90.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........44 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 14 mph.
Mixing height.......2600-4100 ft AGL increasing to 4700-5700 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 20 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (47600-94300 knot-ft)
                    increasing to excellent (108900 knot-ft) late
                    in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR (very low) to (low).

TIME (CDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........38  32  27  35  23  23  25
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............78  81  83  85  87  88  88
RH..............65  57  53  49  47  46  45
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..14  14  13  13  13  13  14
20 FT wind gust.17  16  15  15  15  15  16
Mix hgt (kft)...2.6 3.4 4.1 4.7 5.2 5.7 5.6
Transp wind dir.S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.21  20  20  20  21  22  24
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100048  58  69  80  94  109 118

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................1 increasing to 3 early in the evening, then
                    decreasing to 1 in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 14 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms early in the evening.
Mixing height.......5100-5700 ft AGL decreasing to 700-1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 26 mph shifting to the west 14
                    to 16 mph in the late evening and overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (118200 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (9300 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........42  31  35  37  36  31  23  16  12  10  10  11
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........    CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).10  30  30  30  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   3   3   3   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............88  86  82  78  74  71  69  68  66  65  64  62
RH..............44  45  51  61  67  71  73  74  77  81  82  83
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..14  14  13  11  9   8   7   6   6   6   6   7
20 FT wind gust.17  17  15  14  12  10  10  9   8   8   9   10
Mix hgt (kft)...5.7 5.1 3.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.25  26  23  17  16  16  15  14  14  14  15  14
Haines index....3   3   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/1000125 118 62  22  16  15  9   11  11  11  12  11

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
CWR.................0 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........32 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......400-1600 ft AGL increasing to 9000-9400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (4500-52200 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (149600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR (low) to (moderate).

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........11        9         15        20
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............62        73        84        88
RH..............84        66        43        34
20 FT wind......SW 8G11   W 6G7     W 9G11    W 11G13
Mix hgt (ft)....900       2400      7300      9300
Transport wind..W 14      W 16      W 20      W 18
Haines index....4         5         5         5
SDspl kt-ft/100011        34        121       152

$$
Forecaster...ABELING
Requested by...Jason Wagner
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810605.0/BIS
.DELDT 05/24/18
.EMAIL jason_wagner@fws.gov



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