Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FNUS71 KCTP 231600
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Wolf Run I Rx...DCNR BoF
National Weather Service State College PA
1200 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 23.

If conditions become unrepresentative...
contact the National Weather Service in State College.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure off the New Jersey Coast will continue to
provide the area sunny, dry weather and light east to
southeasterly winds for the rest of today, though gusts
over the Laurel Highlands will be in the 15 to 20 mph
range.

Min RHs values will drop into the 25 to 35 percent range
in most places this afternoon.

Looking ahead, Tuesday through the midweek will bring a
high likelihood for rain, beginning before daybreak Tuesday
in the Southwest, and later in the afternoon across the
Endless Mountains and Western Poconos as a moisture laden
storm system over the Tennessee Valley moves slowly to
the northeast.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 66.
Min humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......100-1600 ft AGL, increasing to 5200-5700 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 8 mph, increasing to south 13 to 18
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5...or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   5   6   7   9   10  11  15  20  25
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  45  49  54  58  60  62  63  64  65
RH..............48  43  39  34  30  29  27  26  27  26
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   7   7   7   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 1.6 3.0 4.1 4.8 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.2   8   13  16  16  16  15  16  17  18
Haines index....5   4   3   3   4   4   5   5   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent), then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 41.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......4000-5200 ft AGL, decreasing to 900-1200 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 21 mph.
Haines Index........4...or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........29  32  36  38  41  43  46  48  50  58  65  72
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  60  57  55  52  50  49  48  46  45  43  42
RH..............30  32  37  40  46  50  52  56  60  62  67  73
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   6   6   6   5   5   5   5   4
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...5.2 4.6 4.0 3.1 2.2 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.20  21  21  21  21  20  17  15  13  13  13  13
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Periods of rain early
                    in the morning.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max temperature.....Around 51.
Min humidity........68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 11 mph.
Mixing height.......800-2300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 18 mph, increasing to 20 to 22
                    mph in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4...or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  87  94  95  96  97  98  99  100 100 100 100
Weather cov.....        LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY PDS PDS PDS PDS
Weather type....        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............42  42  42  44  46  47  48  48  49  50  51  50
RH..............73  76  76  73  71  71  71  74  74  71  68  74
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   6   7   8   8   8   9   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  20  20  20  20  20  20  20
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.3
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.12  9   9   12  15  18  20  20  20  21  22  22
Haines index....3   2   2   3   3   4   4   3   3   3   3   3

$$
Forecaster...WFO-CTP/Lambert
Requested by...Jeremy Dayhoff
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807067.1/CTP
.EMAIL Jerdayhoff@pa.gov



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