Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FNUS72 KMFL 230820
FWSMFL

Spot Forecast for Avian Complex...NPS Big Cypress
National Weather Service Miami FL
420 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 EDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (305) 229-4522, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...Conditions today will be similar to yesterday with
light flow becoming east-southeast during the late morning and
early afternoon hours. More sunshine is expected this morning,
bringing warmer temperatures in the upper 80s with the lowest RH
values expected to dip into the mid 50s. There will be the
potential for showers and thunderstorms to affect the fire from
midday through the late afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will
remain possible over the fire with this activity. More widespread
shower and storm chances are expected to return on Thursday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........56 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1100,...then 9-15 strikes
                    until 1700,...then 1-8 strikes.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL...increasing to 2600-4100 ft
                    AGL in the late morning and afternoon...then
                    decreasing to 2000 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 3 to 12 mph.
Dispersion index....8...increasing to 33.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........79  79  79  85  85  85  87  87  87  89
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Temp............76  80  84  86  85  87  86  88  86  83
RH..............87  77  68  64  63  60  60  56  60  65
20 ft wind dir..E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 ft wind dir..090 100 100 120 120 120 120 130 130 130
20 ft wind spd..2   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
20 ft wind gust.    6   6   6   6   6   6   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 1.5 2.6 3.7 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.4 2.7 2.0
TRANSP WIND DIR.E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
TRANSP WIND SPD.3   6   9   12  12  12  10  9   9   8
Dispersion idx..4   12  31  33  34  36  37  34  28  23
LVORI...........6   4   3   2   2   1   1   1   2   3
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  50  50  50  50  50  50  40
LAL.............2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   2

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the evening,...then a slight chance of showers
                    after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 67.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 5 mph early in the
                    evening...becoming light. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 2000,...then No Tstms.
Mixing height.......300-1500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 2 to 6 mph.
Dispersion index....10...decreasing to 2 until just after midnight.
LVORI...............10.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........89  89  91  91  91  84  84  84  84  84  84  77
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH             SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW              RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH
Temp............81  79  75  72  71  70  70  69  69  68  67  67
RH..............70  78  88  96  99  100 100 100 100 100 100 100
20 ft wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 ft wind dir..130 120 120 120 110 100 100 110 110 110 100 100
20 ft wind spd..5   3   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
20 ft wind gust.6   5   4   4   4   4   4
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 0.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
TRANSP WIND SPD.6   5   3   3   3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
Dispersion idx..14  6   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
LVORI...........3   4   6   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  30  30  30  20  20  20  10  10  10  20
LAL.............2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A chance of
                    showers in the morning...then showers likely
                    and a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds...becoming southeast 5 to 6 mph
                    early. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1700,...then 1-8 strikes.
Mixing height.......300-2100 ft AGL...increasing to 1600-3000 ft
                    AGL early.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 10 mph.
Dispersion index....5...increasing to 22 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............1.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........77     85     85     78     94     94
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............67     71     82     84     85     85
RH..............100    100    73     65     60     60
20 ft wind dir..E      E      SE     SE     SE     SE
20 ft wind dir..100    100    120    120    130    130
20 ft wind spd..2      3      3      5      5      6
20 ft wind gust.       4      5      6      6      7
MIX HGT (FT)....300    300    2100   3000   2900   2100
TRANSPORT WIND..E 2    E 2    SE 7   SE 9   E 8    SE 10
Dispersion idx..1      2      19     25     22     24
LVORI...........10     9      3      3      2      2
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     30     40     60     60
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1

$$
Forecaster...Moses
Requested by...Carol Bryan
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1810317.3/MFL


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