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000
FNUS73 KMPX 151445
FWSMPX

Spot Forecast for Vermillion Rx...MNDNR
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
945 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

Please contact our office if you have questions or concerns with
this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...For the Vermillion Rx fire, relative humidity will
be roughly 40-50 percent at ignition, before falling to 20-25
percent this afternoon. Isolated showers are possible over the
next two to three hours, however they will not amount to much and
elevated fire weather concerns will persist through the day.
Light early morning winds will increase out of the east,
sustaining between 10-15 mph this afternoon.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the morning, then chance
                    of rain showers early in the afternoon.
Temperature.........54 at ignition...Max 67.
RH..................45 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds east at 9 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    East winds 9 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /18400 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /45200 knot-ft/.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 3300 ft
                    AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10 to 16 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM
Sky cover.......PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC  PC  MC  PC
Weather cov.....SCH SCH CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............54  57  60  63  65  67  67  67  67  65  61  58
RH..............45  37  32  29  27  24  26  25  25  29  35  39
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   10  10  13  12  13  12  10  12
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  14  15  15  17  16  17  16  16  18
Mix hgt (kft)...1.4 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.3 3.2 2.9 0.8 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.15  13  12  10  12  14  15  16  17  15  14  15
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 46.
RH..................Max 68 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 17 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (43900 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (6000 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 14 to 23 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 25 mph early in the morning.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the morning. Rain showers
                    through the day. Chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 55.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Breezy. East winds 18 to 26 mph. Gusts up to 37
                    mph late in the morning. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    morning and early afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (21100 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (78000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......2100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 25 to 30 mph increasing to east 35 to
                    43 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

$$
Forecaster...Dye
Requested by...Kevin Berens
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410919.0/MPX
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kevin.berens@state.mn.us