Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FNUS73 KOAX 232203
FWSOAX

Spot Forecast for Copeland Bend WMA...Iowa DNR
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
503 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure ridge axis will remain over the area through tonight
in advance of a fast moving upper level system coming out of the
northern Rockies. This upper system will move into the area on Tuesday
bringing with it a chance of showers.


.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers in the afternoon, generally after 3 pm.
Temperature.........48 at ignition...Max 72.
RH..................71 percent at ignition...Min 29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds north at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light and variable winds, becoming north 5 to 6
                    mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 0-500 ft
                    AGL, increasing to 2000 ft AGL late in the
                    morning, then increasing to 4000-5700 ft AGL
                    early in the afternoon, increasing to 7100-8000
                    ft AGL early in the afternoon, decreasing to
                    5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 3 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /0 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good /49700
                    knot-ft/, increasing to good (37500 knot-ft)
                    early in the afternoon.
GFDI (max)..........Moderate.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........33     46     55     64     74
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............48     61     68     71     72
RH..............71     48     37     31     29
20 ft wind......N 3    N 3    N 4    N 5    N 6
20 ft wind gust.5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....100    500    4000   7100   7800
Transport wind..N 6    N 3    N 8    N 9    NW 8
GFDI............1      1      2      3      4
Haines index....5      5      4      4      5
SDspl kt-ft/10000      2      35     57     52

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A slight chance of
                    showers early in the evening, then a chance of
                    showers.
Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 79 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL, decreasing to 0-300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 13 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (0-18700 knot-ft).
GFDI (max)..........Moderate.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........85     92     95     95     93     91
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Temp............68     62     57     54     52     49
RH..............34     46     57     64     66     71
20 ft wind......N 6    N 7    N 7    N 7    N 7    N 7
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     10     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2700   BLW100 300    300    300    300
Transport wind..N 13   N 16   N 16   N 18   N 21   N 20
GFDI............4      3      2      3      3      3
Haines index....5      5      4      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/100019     0      3      4      5      4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent), then becoming
                    mostly sunny (35-45 percent). A chance of
                    showers in the morning.
Temperature.........Max 62.
RH..................Min 38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......200-1700 ft AGL, increasing to 2500-4200 ft AGL
                    in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast 13 to 21 mph, decreasing to 7 to 10
                    mph late.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3000-42900 knot-ft).
GFDI (max)..........Moderate.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........90     90     91     65     53     41
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............45     45     48     52     56     61
RH..............79     76     68     56     49     41
20 ft wind......N 7    N 7    NE 8   N 7    N 6    N 6
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....200    400    1000   2500   3700   4200
Transport wind..N 18   N 18   N 21   NE 17  NE 13  NE 8
GFDI............3      3      3      3      3      4
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10003      7      18     37     41     29

$$
Forecaster...DeWald
Requested by...Matt Dollison
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807517.0/OAX


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