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FXUS62 KGSP 020718
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
318 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry and warm high pressure remains over the area, before a rainy
frontal system with periodic thunderstorms moves in Friday and
stalls through the weekend. A general summertime pattern sets up
early next week, which will likely support scattered thunderstorm
development each afternoon.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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As of 3:05 AM EDT Thursday: Skies remain mostly clear and winds
mostly calm across our area early this morning. These conditions
are allowing for fairly efficient radiational cooling, however
it`s still looking like dewpts will remain too low for fog to
be much of a concern. I wouldn`t totally rule it out in the more
fog-prone mtn valleys, especially the Little TN River valley, but
elsewhere it`s unlikely. Despite the good radiational cooling,
low temps will are still expected to remain about 4 to 6 degrees
above normal for early May.

Otherwise, upper ridging will persist over our region thru the
near-term period. At the sfc, weak high pressure will shift east
towards the Atlantic Coast today while the Bermuda High strengthens
moderately well offshore. This will keep fair weather across our
area today and tonight. Winds will pick this afternoon from the SE,
but they should be fairly weak with speeds generally < 10 mph.
Thicknesses will increase again today with temperatures expected
to continue their warming trend. Highs are expected to top-out in
the upper 80s across most of the lower terrain, and upper 70s to
low 80s over the mtn valleys.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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As of 155 AM Thursday...The short range begins with a ridge axis
shifting east of the area while srn stream mlvl energy tries to
break down the wrn periphery of this feature. The guidance is in
good agreement with a lobe of vort energy crossing the area during
max heating, but over all, the dynamics and thermal profiles remain
dictated by the ridge. Thus, expect afternoon convec to have meager
upper-level enhancement. Soundings still show an environment non-
favorable for organized or severe cells with deep layered shear less
than 20 kts and narrow sbCAPE and weak upward acceleration
potential. There will likely be storms due to high sfc tds and
temps, but more general in nature with gusty winds and small hail
the main issue. On Sat, a secondary wave crosses the area which
looks more developed, yet this will mainly have the effect of
moistening the column as a weak a sfc bndry works in from the
northwest. The severe potential again looks minimal, but a few
precip efficient storms may anchor or train and create localized
hydro issues. Not expecting widespread areas of high rainfall and in
fact the guidance QPF fields have come down the last couple runs,
with only the ECMWF showing an isol pocket of arnd 2 inches of rain
over the wrn Upstate associated with a possible llvl bndry. Temps
will remain quite warm Fri with highs abt 5-7 degrees abv normal,
then drop to normal levels Sat. Mins remain abt 10 degrees abv
normal each night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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As of 215 AM Thursday...The ext range still looks unsettled as the
pattern becomes more zonal and summer-like as waves of h5 energy
traverse the flow. Sunday looks convectively active as llvl Atl
moisture flux ensues and the atmos becomes more unstable than the
previous couple days. With an increase in dry air aloft, a few
storms may become strong, but mainly the pulse variety with large
hail and strong outflows possible. Deep layered shear increases a
little Mon and Tue, and along with better looking mlvl LRs, this may
be enuf to help instigate a few severe level storms or multicell
convec. Still a ways off to garner the details of this scenario,
however. Max and min temps remain quite warm for this time of year
thru the period.
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&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all
terminals thru the 06z taf period. Other than some passing high
clouds, skies will be mostly clear today. Patchy mtn valley fog
will be possible overnight and into the morning, but with the
relatively dry low-levels it may be tough for any fog to develop
even over those areas. Winds will remain calm at most sites well
into the morning and eventually pick up from the SE this aftn
with speeds generally less than 10 mph thru the day. Winds will
eventually go light and VRB to calm again later tonight.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected thru most of Friday. More
numerous showers and thunderstorms and their associated restric-
tions are likely on Saturday and possibly into Sunday with the
passage of another cold front.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JPT