Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
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622 FXUS62 KGSP 302335 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 735 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and warm high pressure builds across the region Wednesday through Thursday, before another active frontal system moves in Friday and lingers through the weekend. The next front approaches toward the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 730 PM EDT Tuesday: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving out of the NC mountains and into the NC foothills this evening. Isolated showers remain elsewhere. Expect the activity to dissipate quickly this evening, although some could make it into the NC Piedmont before dissipation. Poor lapse rates and weak shear suggest the risk for anything severe to be relatively low, and rainfall amounts should also be modest. For tonight, a short wave should make steady eastward progress and should be east of the fcst area by late evening, taking the shower chances with it. Guidance is suggesting some widespread fog as mid/upper levels clear off behind the upper wave. Hard to say if this will be anything more than locally dense, but it will be something we will have to monitor later tonight. Not a big push of cooler air behind this system, so low temps will be around a category warmer than normal. In the wake of that system, an upper ridge builds to our west on Wednesday with sfc high pressure building over the mtns to dry us out, though the min RH does not look like a problem. High temps will rebound 5-10 degrees, and about five above normal, under sunny sky. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 1215 PM Tuesday...We are still expecting the atmosphere to remain suppressed on Thursday as upper ridge axis is still progged to build atop the SE CONUS and boost piedmont maximum temperatures into the middle 80s. Lower lvl return flow, well downstream of elongated weak ohio valley front, will moderately nudge sfc dwpts upward on Friday. In combination with an approaching weak southern plains s/wv, a smattering of showers and a few tstms are probable, especially in the mountains on Friday. Giving the weak thermodynamic profiles progged, at this juncture, the bulk of storms which develop on Friday are expected to be of the garden variety. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 115 PM Tuesday...Given the quasi-zonal and wavy pattern setting up atop the region for the weekend, it is difficult to get into specifics with respect to shower cvrg for any specific period, but overall, unsettled is a good way to describe the sensible weather for Saturday and Sunday. Given the moist profiles expected, numerous showers and embedded diurnally enhanced tstms are probable at some point on both Saturday and Sunday. Thanks to clouds and shower chances, maximum temperatures will be back closer to the early May climo. Downstream of rather vigorous looking plains cyclone, ridging will once again strengthen atop the SE CONUS early next week. What is means is a return to piedmont mid 80s by day 7 along the daily shower or tstm chances lowering to below climo. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: TSRA ongoing at KAVL and KHKY. Have short TEMPOs in place for this. Elsewhere only isolated SHRA remain. Have kept VCSH there. Convection should end quickly this evening with lower clouds scattering out. SW wind becomes light and variable to calm overnight. NNW wind at KAVL follows the same pattern. Guidance showing good fog chances overnight for all but KCLT and KGSP/KGMU. Can`t rule out restrictions there, but chance too low for the TAFs for now. That said, have followed the fog trends and keep MVFR TEMPO IFR at the other sites. LIFR and even VLIFR will be possible. Fog should dissipate quickly Wed morning leaving mostly clear skies with mainly cirrus. Light N wind develops during the morning turning NE for the afternoon. Outlook: VFR Thursday and into Friday. More numerous showers and storms with related restrictions are expected on Saturday and possibly into Sunday with a cold frontal passage. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DEO NEAR TERM...PM/RWH SHORT TERM...CSH LONG TERM...CSH AVIATION...RWH