- Warnings
- Observations
- Forecasts
- Text Messages
- Forecast Models
- Climate
- Weather Safety
- Education/Outreach
- Information Center
- Contact Us
RSS Feeds
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
000 FXPQ50 PGUM 220800 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 600 PM ChST Mon Apr 22 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Moderate trades prevail, with filament clouds observed overhead. Seas are about 5 to 7 feet. && .Discussion... Pleasant weather brought by moderate, diffusive trade winds will continue through the week, with mostly clear skies expected tonight. A "hedgehog" surface trough well to our east may bring low-end scattered showers to Guam Tuesday night, but confidence is low due to lackluster moisture columns and trough motion. && .Marine... Combined seas of 5 to 8 feet are expected through Tuesday night, before decreasing 1 to 2 feet thereafter, as trade and northerly swells weaken slightly, before going back up once again by the weekend. && .Fire weather... The KBDI now is 719, which under the wind conditions earlier today, puts it in the extreme category. Relative humidity at sensors around the island, in addition to sustained winds of 20 mph and already dry foliage, is producing conditions that may allow fires that do develop to likely spread rapidly. As such, a Red Flag Warning remains valid until Tuesday evening. && .Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk... The primary feature across the region continues to be a band of trade-wind convergence extending westward from near the Date Line to just east of Chuuk. This convergence has weakened a bit today and has become more diffuse, however, models show a reversal of this trend. Along with the band of convergence, several weak to moderate trade- wind troughs are evident on the latest surface analysis from east of the Date Line to east of Chuuk. These troughs will interact with the convergence band to enhance the convergence and produce periods of showers and thunderstorms across the region over the next several days. The first of these troughs looks to bring a period of numerous showers to Weno Wednesday. The more robust trough is expected to bring numerous/likely showers around midweek to Kosrae and Pohnpei. Otherwise, POPS (Probability of Precipitation) look to range from 30 to 50 percent through the coming weekend for all but Chuuk, where a drier period looks to move in over the weekend. No big change in the marine conditions. Seas of look to remain in the 5 to 7 foot range for Chuuk, Pohnpei and Kosrae for the next few days, then build a bit later in the week, reaching as high as 9 feet over the weekend. Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected from Kosrae to Chuuk for the next few days, becoming moderate to fresh late in the week into the weekend. For Majuro, occasional fresh winds are expected for the next several days into the weekend. && .Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau... The band of trade-wind convergence that extends westward from eastern Micronesia has weakened a bit, however, this feature continues to produce showers and thunderstorms near Palau, mostly south of Koror. This convection remains south of Yap. Another trough, currently between Yap and Chuuk, is expected to maintain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Palau through Wednesday night. This trough also looks promising to bring a round of showers to Yap Tuesday night into Wednesday as it drags the convergence band a bit farther north. Unfortunately, the showers will be gone quickly, with the dry pattern returning Wednesday evening. Palau, on the other hand, will remain in an overall moist pattern through the weekend. Benign marine conditions will continue with combined seas of 6 feet or less and gentle to moderate winds continuing through the week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...Red Flag Warning until 7 PM ChST Tuesday for GUZ001. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Montvila Micronesia: Kleeschulte
