Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam
209 FXPQ50 PGUM 282012 AFDGUM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tiyan GU 612 AM ChST Mon Apr 29 2024 .Marianas Synopsis... Satellite imagery is showing partly cloudy skies and spotty trade showers across the Marianas this morning. Latest altimetry data is indicating seas of 5 to 7 feet to the east and west of the coastal waters. && .Discussion... The drier trade wind pattern continues this week, with spotty passing showers. Will be a slight uptick in clouds and showers from time to time, as wrinkles in the trades pass through the Marianas, but kept partly cloudy skies and isolated showers. Afternoon temps will approach 90 and heat index values approach 100. With the lack of abundant clouds and showers, little relief from the heat expected. && .Marine/Surf... Gentle to moderate trade winds are expected through the week. Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet, comprised of a trade swell and a background northeast swell, will diminish slightly to around 4 to 6 feet by midweek. There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along east facing reefs for the coming days, with a low risk expected along all other reefs. && .Fire Weather... Only 0.04" of rain fell at the airport yesterday, allowing the KBDI to rise to 272, still in the low category. However, the KBDI may not be truly of the fire weather threat since most of the heavy rainfall that fell last week was sudden and more runoff. This week, expect the drier trade wind pattern to continue, with only passing isolated showers expected and a wetting rain unlikely. The KBDI will likely rise steadily and conditions will continue to rapidly dry out. && .Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk... An Inter-tropical convergence zone has started to break down in to fragments across the region. This zone starts south east of Majuro and end south east of Eauripik. The convection is cellular in nature and some cells can have locally heavy rains. Majuro, Kosrae and Pohnpei all have these showers near by while Chuuk has them incoming. These showers are expected to persist through most of this week. Seas are fairly benign with combined seas of 5 to 6 feet in RMI. Winds are expected to be gentle to fresh for most of the week. && .Western Micronesia (for Palau and Yap)... For Palau, the cloud tops are warming, this suggest that the showers are running out of rain to drop. More showers are expected as ripples in the trades will bring more showers over the next week. For Yap, a dry pattern is expected to continue for the next few days. Around mid week, the ripples mentioned above will likely be large enough to bring some showers to Yap. then the weekend looks to return to a dry pattern. Seas are fairly benign with combined seas of 5 to 6 feet between Yap and Chuuk. Winds are expected to be gentle to moderate for most of the week. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...None. MP...None. Marianas Waters...None. && $$ Marianas: Slagle Micronesia: Bowsher