759
FXUS06 KWBC 101902
PMDMRD
Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD
300 PM EDT Fri July 10 2026

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 20 2026

Today`s numerical models predict a strong anomalous mid-level ridge centered
over the Northern High Plains. Above normal 500-hPa heights extend from this
ridge to cover most of the north-central and northwestern Contiguous United
States (CONUS). The magnitude of the ridge is gradually forecast to diminish
toward the end of the period. Transient ridging across the Southeast early is
forecast to break down. As a result, a trough predicted over the Northeast
begins to slowly retrograde toward the Ohio Valley. A weak trough forecast off
the Pacific Northwest coast early in the period is expected to dissipate,
corresponding to mid-level height rises as the period progresses. Cyclonic flow
and below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast across much of Alaska, associated
with an anomalous trough predicted near western Mainland. Near to modestly
above normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii.

Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the western and
north-central CONUS, due to expansive ridging. Confidence is high (greater than
70 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across parts of the Northern
High Plains and Northern Rockies, near the center of the ridge. Confidence is
also high (greater than 60 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across
most of Florida and adjacent areas of southern Georgia due to anomalous ridging
early coupled with above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent
Gulf and Atlantic. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for the
Northeast and adjacent areas of the northern Mid-Atlantic and eastern Great
Lakes due to a retrograding trough. Near normal temperatures are favored across
parts of the Southwest and adjacent areas of the southern High Plains, as
clouds and precipitation may keep maximum temperatures down. Below normal
temperatures are favored for much of Alaska, due to predicted anomalous
troughing. Due to the expected long duration of this trough, confidence is high
(greater than 60 percent chance) for below normal temperatures for much of the
Alaska Peninsula and adjacent areas of the southwestern Mainland. Above normal
temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal
SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.

Subtropical ridging is forecast to evolve into a favorable position and
orientation for enhanced monsoonal moisture advection. As such, above normal
precipitation is favored across the Southwest and adjacent areas of the Great
Basin, with probabilities exceeding 50 percent across much of Arizona and
adjacent areas of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah. Above normal
precipitation is also favored across much of the the Southern Plains to the
Gulf Coast, Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, consistent with teleconnections from
predicted anomalous ridges over the Northern Plains and over the northeastern
Atlantic. However, below normal precipitation is modestly favored for the
southern tip of Florida, near the western extent of an axis of surface high
pressure extending from the Atlantic. Below normal precipitation is favored for
the Upper Mississippi Valley, and adjacent areas of the Northern and Central
Great Plains and the western Great Lakes, associated with the anomalous ridge
centered over the Northern High Plains. Above normal precipitation is favored
for much of Alaska, associated with predicted mean cyclonic flow. Confidence is
high (greater than 50 percent chance) for above normal precipitation for parts
of the Alaska Peninsula and adjacent areas of the southwestern Mainland, near
the predicted trough axis. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is
indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from the ECMWF,
Canadian, and GEFS ensembles.

The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 55% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day
8


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good
agreement on large scale ridging over the north-central and western CONUS and
troughing over Alaska, offset by inconsistencies on the strength and
orientation of the ridge and with the potential retrogression of a trough over
the Northeast.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 18 - 24 2026

During the week-2 period, anomalous ridging centered over the Northern High
Plains is forecast to slowly de-amplify. The center of the subtropical ridge is
generally expected to remain in a favorable position for an enhanced monsoon
during the first half of the period, before slowly migrating southward.
Cyclonic flow associated with a trough is forecast to persist across the
Northeast, with the trough retrograding toward the Ohio Valley before gradually
weakening as the period progresses. Persistent troughing is forecast over
western Mainland Alaska well into week-2. Near to modestly above normal
mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii.

Above normal temperatures are favored to persist across much of the western and
north-central CONUS due to a continuation of anomalous ridging, especially
early in the period. Confidence is high (greater than 60 percent chance) for
above normal temperatures in parts of the Northern Rockies and interior
Northwest, in close proximity to the ridge axis. Confidence is lower (generally
under a 40 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across much of the
Southwest, due to potential increased cloud cover and precipitation. Near
normal temperatures are favored from the Northeast to the Ohio, Tennessee, and
Middle Mississippi Valleys, as a trough retrogrades southwestward from
southeastern Canada. However, confidence is high (greater than 60 percent
chance) for above normal temperatures farther to the south, across the southern
half of the Florida Peninsula, due in part to observed above normal SSTs in
adjacent waters. Below normal temperatures are favored across most of southern
and western Alaska, underneath predicted cyclonic flow. Above normal
temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal
SSTs in the adjacent Pacific.

Enhanced monsoonal moisture advection is forecast to persist during at least
the first half of week-2, leading to increased probabilities of above normal
precipitation across the Southwest and Great Basin. Above normal precipitation
is favored across most of the Eastern Seaboard and adjacent areas as a trough
retrogrades toward the Ohio Valley. Below normal precipitation is more likely
across parts of the north-central CONUS, downstream of the predicted ridge axis
over the northern High Plains. An active pattern is favored to continue across
much of Alaska, due to persistent troughing. A tilt toward above normal
precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from
the ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS ensembles.

The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 15% of Today`s 6z GFS
Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 55% of Today`s 0z European Ensemble Mean
centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today`s 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on
Day 11


FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, good model
agreement between the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means, offset by
disagreements with the GEFS ensemble mean and the potential for pattern
de-amplication.

FORECASTER: Scott H

Notes:


The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is
the same as that in the tables: A-above   N-near normal   B-below

The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer
(orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal.
Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more
likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being
wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N")
normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of
the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%.

In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will
be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally
even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry
seasons.  In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a
forecast of little or no precipitation.

The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as
reference in the climate outlooks.

The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on
2026-07-10.


Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates:
20050716 - 20180714 - 20160708 - 20220710 - 19980625


Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4)
for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude
include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates:
20220713 - 20180714 - 20160708 - 19980626 - 20050716


6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 16 - 20 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    B     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    A     S TEXAS     A    A     W TEXAS     A    A
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    B     MISSOURI    A    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    A     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    A    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    B
INDIANA     A    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    A    A
TENNESSEE   A    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    N
VERMONT     B    N     NEW HAMP    B    N     MAINE       B    N
MASS        B    N     CONN        N    N     RHODE IS    N    N
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  A    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    A    A
N CAROLINA  A    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    B     AK N SLOPE  B    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  B    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    N    N



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
Outlook for Jul 18 - 24 2026

STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN   STATE      TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON  A    N     OREGON      A    N     NRN CALIF   A    N
SRN CALIF   A    A     IDAHO       A    A     NEVADA      A    A
W MONTANA   A    N     E MONTANA   A    N     WYOMING     A    A
UTAH        A    A     ARIZONA     A    A     COLORADO    A    A
NEW MEXICO  A    A     N DAKOTA    A    B     S DAKOTA    A    B
NEBRASKA    A    N     KANSAS      A    N     OKLAHOMA    A    N
N TEXAS     A    N     S TEXAS     A    N     W TEXAS     A    N
MINNESOTA   A    B     IOWA        A    N     MISSOURI    N    N
ARKANSAS    A    N     LOUISIANA   A    N     WISCONSIN   A    B
ILLINOIS    N    N     MISSISSIPPI A    A     MICHIGAN    N    N
INDIANA     N    N     OHIO        N    N     KENTUCKY    N    A
TENNESSEE   N    A     ALABAMA     A    A     NEW YORK    N    A
VERMONT     N    A     NEW HAMP    N    A     MAINE       N    A
MASS        N    A     CONN        N    A     RHODE IS    N    A
PENN        N    A     NEW JERSEY  N    A     W VIRGINIA  N    A
MARYLAND    N    A     DELAWARE    N    A     VIRGINIA    N    A
N CAROLINA  N    A     S CAROLINA  A    A     GEORGIA     A    A
FL PNHDL    A    A     FL PENIN    A    N     AK N SLOPE  N    A
AK ALEUTIAN B    A     AK WESTERN  B    A     AK INT BSN  N    A
AK S INT    B    A     AK SO COAST B    A     AK PNHDL    B    N

                           LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL     PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE   N  - NEAR NORMAL     A - ABOVE   N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW                        B - BELOW

THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.

$$