426
FXUS01 KWBC 140809
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jul 16 2026

...Anomalous heat and humidity continue across the northern
Plains/upper Midwest while spreading into the Northeast today, and
reaching into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday...

...Significant heavy rainfall likely from the Hill Country to the
Big Bend regions of Texas...

...Monsoonal showers and thunderstorms develop across the interior
western U.S...

...Severe thunderstorms possible today across northern New
England...

A strong upper-level high responsible for the recent all-time high
temperature records in the West will continue to build eastward
through the northern tier states toward the East Coast over the
next few days.  This weather pattern will prolong the heat and
humidity across the northern Plains to the Great Lakes where high
temperatures ranging from 95 to 105 will break some daily high
temperature records this afternoon.  A cold front trailing from a
deepening cyclone across eastern Canada will bring some cooler and
drier air into the U.S.-Canadian border and keep the temperatures
barely under record levels by Wednesday across the northern
Plains.  However, heat soaring into the upper 90s is forecast to
spread across New England today before reaching farther south into
the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday when triple digit high temperatures
are possible.  Extreme Heat Warnings remain in effect across a
large portion of the Great Basin through the northern Plains as
Heat Advisories and some Extreme Heat Warnings are posted for
areas farther east into Northeast.  If you will be situated within
any of these areas forecast to experience extreme heat, stay
hydrated, take frequent breaks, and limit outdoor activities if
possible.  In addition, severe thunderstorms are possible today
across northern New England as the cold front approaches.  Cooler
air will penetrate deeper into New England by Thursday morning
under gusty westerly winds behind the cold front.

South of this anomalous upper high, a front is forecast to remain
nearly stationary through the southern Plains, the Deep South and
the Southeast.  Upper-level disturbances will then interact with
the wavy stationary front to produce repeated rounds of showers
and thunderstorms across this corridor of the southern U.S.  Near
the western end of the front, a significant heavy rainfall event
is expected to linger across the Texas Hill Country and Big Bend
over the next three days as clusters of thunderstorms could
mutually amplify the smaller scale upper-level disturbances to
further enhance rainfall over this region under a slow-moving
weather pattern.  The latest rainfall forecast calls for storm
total rainfall amounts of 6-8" with locally 10+ inches possible
over then next couple of days, which could lead to dangerous flash
flooding as soils in the area become increasingly inundated.

Meanwhile, the forecast remains on track for an influx of
monsoonal moisture to drive an uptick in late-day to early-evening
thunderstorms over much of the Great Basin, Four Corners, and
Intermountain West.  Late-day thunderstorms are also forecast for
the Deep South to the Southeast near the stationary front.  A few
instances of flash flooding and severe weather are possible in the
strongest storms through midweek.

Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php




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