960
ACUS48 KWNS 200804
SWOD48
SPC AC 200802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper troughing will persist across the eastern U.S. through early
next week. Meanwhile, a strong, amplified upper ridge will envelop
the western half of the CONUS. This should largely limit greater
severe potential beneath the upper ridge, though some daily
mesoscale-driven strong thunderstorm risk could develop over parts
of the Plains as moist southerly low-level flow maintains moisture
across the central portions of the country. While any stronger flow
aloft will mostly remain north of the international border, some
model guidance trends over the last 24 hours indicate strengthening
northwesterly flow aloft is possible as a shortwave impulse or two
migrates atop the upper ridge and over parts of the northern Plains
and Great Lakes. This could support an increasing severe risk across
these areas over the weekend, though confidence is too low for any
15 percent probability areas at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/20/2026