168
FXHW60 PHFO 300155
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
355 PM HST Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate trades will prevail over the eastern islands through the
first half of the work week, while lighter trades over the
western islands allow for some leeward land and sea breezes.
Relatively dry weather will persist through Tuesday, with a few
showers affecting windward areas overnight into the early morning
hours and developing over interior and leeward areas each
afternoon. The trades will rebound on Wednesday, bringing a
transition over to more typical trade wind weather. The trades
will become breezy Thursday through next weekend, and the trade
wind showers may increase as well due to a disturbance aloft
moving over the islands over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure far northeast of the state and a weak low pressure
system north-northwest of the state will maintain a light pressure
gradient over the Hawaiian Islands over the next few days. Trade
winds will be light enough for day time sea breezes, which should
lead to afternoon clouds over leeward and interior areas. Rainfall
amounts should remain light due to limited moisture. Windward
areas should continue to see a few light passing showers from time
to time.

The trades should begin to strengthen on Wednesday and by
Thursday, we should see breezy trades across the state. For
Thursday and Friday, we should see our typical breezy trade wind
weather with scattered showers over windward and mountain areas
and isolated showers over leeward areas.

Over the weekend, latest model guidance is showing an upper level
low approaching the state from the west, which will lead to
unstable conditions. At the surface, we should continue to see
high pressure centered far north of the state generating breezy
trade winds. With breezy trades at the surface and unstable
conditions aloft, we will likely see enhanced trade wind showers.
The details are still very uncertain due to models having a
difficult time handling the evolution of upper level lows.
Nonetheless, we will likely see increased shower activity
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light to moderate ESE winds with localized sea and land breezes will
continue through tomorrow. A relatively dry airmass will keep clouds
and showers limited with the exception of Kauai where lingering
moisture remains. Land breezes will likely clear out clouds over
the islands at night before returning again tomorrow afternoon
with the sea breezes. Overall VFR conditions are expected to
prevail.


High clouds will continue to stream across the Hawaiian Islands
through tonight as an upper level jet streak moves from west to
east. This jet streak will slowly move south. An AIRMET Tango for
tempo moderate turbulence is in effect between FL300 and FL380
and could continue through the evening before weakening and
moving south tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to fresh east to east-southeast trade winds will persist
during the next couple of days as high pressure remains far
northeast of the area and a stalled front sits about 250 nm
northwest of Kauai. ASCAT passes from earlier today revealed
borderline conditions in the Alenuihaha Channel and south of the
Big Island, but with winds expected to ease slightly tonight, we
have held off on reissuing a Small Craft Advisory (SCA). High
pressure will build far north of the state late Wednesday and
Thursday, causing trade winds to build into the weekend. A SCA
will initially be issued for the typically windy waters around
the Big Island and Maui and may be expanded to additional waters
Friday or Saturday.

Tiny surf will persist along north facing shores through Friday,
with a small pulse of northwest swell swell expected this
weekend. A small long period south-southwest swell will fill in
tonight, peak Tuesday, and ease Wednesday, followed small
background level surf on south shores for the rest of the week.
Choppy surf along east facing shores will decline over the next
couple of days, then gradually increase as trade winds rebuild.
Rough east shore surf will likely rise above seasonal average
Friday into the weekend.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Tsamous
MARINE...Bedal/Wroe