Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

000
FXUS66 KHNX 232108
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
208 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024


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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A cooling trend back to just below seasonal normals lasting
through Friday.
2. A few thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada today
and Wednesday in the afternoon and evening hours.
3. The next storm system will impact Central California Friday
with mountain snow, foothills rain, and a chance of valley
thunderstorms.
4. There is a high chance of advisory level winds in the Kern
County mountains and desert slopes, with a Wind Advisory being
issued from 5pm Wednesday through 11pm Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A trough with an associated low pressure system is slowly making
its way towards the California coast, and in the process will be
bringing temperatures down to below normal values beginning
tomorrow. Tomorrow through Friday, temperatures throughout the
San Joaquin Valley will be 4-6 degrees below normal, with high
temperature values in the mid 70s anticipated. After the couple
systems pass through by Saturday night, temperatures will again
warm back to normal values.

Lingering convection in the Sierra Nevada alongside the systems
coming in are leading to increased probabilities of afternoon
and evening thunderstorms. Today, there is an 8-10% chance that
thunderstorms will impact the Sierra Crest. Tomorrow,
probabilities are higher and the spatial extent larger, with
chances extending down into Tulare County. Here are
probabilities for select Sierra Nevada locations seeing
thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon and evening:
Tioga Pass: 26%
Yosemite Valley: 21%
Wawona: 18%
Lake Thomas Edison: 23%
Oakhurst: 15%
Shaver Lake and Grant Grove: 16%
Three Rivers: 13%

A second trough associated with a low pressure system will
impact the region Friday through Saturday, bringing mountain
snow, rain to the Sierra foothills, and another chance of
thunderstorms. Snow and rain totals will be very light, with 1-3
inches of snow being the highest totals anticipated and rain
totals in the foothills being up to a tenth of an inch.
Afternoon convection looks to be the biggest factor associated
with this system, with probabilities a tad higher than tomorrow
anticipated for Friday afternoon. Here are probabilities of
thunderstorms for selected Sierra Nevada locations:
Tioga Pass: 26%
Yosemite Valley: 21%
Wawona: 21%
Lake Thomas Edison: 23%
Oakhurst: 19%
Shaver Lake: 20%
Grant Grove: 18%
Three Rivers: 15%

The passage of this second trough Friday through the weekend
will also bring a chance of high wind gusts to the Kern County
mountains and desert slopes. Friday night looks to be the
windiest day, with probabilities higher than 85% of wind gusts
higher than 47 mph, which is well within the advisory threshold.
As such, a Wind Advisory has been issued for the Kern County
mountains and desert slopes from 5pm Wednesday through 11pm
Friday evening.

Once the trough progresses further eastward and makes its way
out of the area, ridging will take its place and warm
temperatures back up to normal values for this time of year as
well as bring dry conditions back to the area.


&&


.AVIATION...
Localized Sierra Crest MVFR conditions with afternoon
thunderstorms during the 21Z-03Z time frame. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail throughout Central California for at
least the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ISSUED:  04/22/2024 14:16
EXPIRES: 04/23/2024 23:59
None.



&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 11 PM PDT Friday for
CAZ331-333-334-337>339.
&&

$$

public/aviation...AS
PIO/IDSS..........EW

weather.gov/hanford