Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
653 FXUS64 KBMX 111110 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 610 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024 Quiet weather conditions expected through the weekend across Central Alabama, with sunny skies and less humidity. Surface high pressure will build into the area today, with northwesterly flow in the low and mid levels. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s. With light winds and partly cloudy skies, temperatures will fall into the 50s again tonight. As weak upper level ridging arrives from the west tomorrow, winds aloft become westerly with an increase in high clouds. Highs will be a couple of degrees warmer, in the upper 70s to lower 80s. 14 && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 315 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024 An upper-level low is progged to advance east from the Central and Southern Plains toward the Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. This will coincide with low-level moisture advection and isentropic ascent across the Deep South. As such, PoPs increase with the expectation of widespread rain showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout the day. The progression of the disturbance aloft will be slow once in the region, so chances for showers/storms will linger into Tuesday. Most thunderstorm activity is expected across our south where best instability is forecast, though additional embedded thunderstorms will be possible across all of Central Alabama. We`ll need to monitor for strong/severe thunderstorms on Tuesday as there`s some opportunity for instability/shear overlap coincident with the trough axis moving across the Tennessee Valley. The trough axis will pass to our east Tuesday night with a subsequent dry slot, ending rain chances. Mid to late next week looks fairly reasonable with temperatures a few degrees within normal values. Flow aloft is progged to be in a complex split flow configuration with several embedded perturbations across the CONUS. There`s no obvious signal for trouble for our area, through rain chances are back on the increase at the end of the period owing to a southern stream disturbance moving across the Gulf Coast. 40/Sizemore && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT SAT MAY 11 2024 VFR conditions expected through the forecast period as high pressure builds into the area. High clouds continue to move across the southern counties this morning. Otherwise, clear skies are expected. Light winds to start the period will increase from the northwest at 7-10kts through the day. Winds diminish this evening. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... Rain free conditions continue through the weekend, as drier air remains over the area. Minimum RH values will range from 35 to 45 percent this afternoon, with northerly 20ft winds becoming northwesterly at 6-8mph. Tonight, max RH values will be above 85 percent. Light and variable 20ft winds are expected Sunday as high pressure moves across the area. Min RH values Sunday afternoon will range from 30 to 45 percent. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 77 52 80 57 / 0 0 0 10 Anniston 77 54 80 59 / 0 0 0 10 Birmingham 78 59 82 62 / 0 0 0 20 Tuscaloosa 80 59 83 63 / 0 0 0 30 Calera 78 58 81 62 / 0 0 0 20 Auburn 77 59 80 63 / 0 0 0 10 Montgomery 79 58 81 63 / 0 0 0 20 Troy 79 58 81 62 / 0 0 0 10 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....40 AVIATION...14