Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 240922
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
522 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024



...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

As the 500 mb shortwave progresses offshore over the course of
the next few hours, upper level ridging and subsequent surface
high pressure is expected to develop over the Great Lakes. This
center of high pressure will begin to shift east through the day
today, setting the stage for a weak CAD wedge to become
established east of the Appalachians. The primary concern through
the afternoon will be regarding fire weather conditions. Minimum
relative humidities at 25% or less are expected across much of
northern and eastern Georgia today as the continental dry airmass
remains in place today. With a dry layer aloft at ~900mb diagnosed
in model soundings and post-frontal airmasses notoriously being
drier than guidance indicates, locations further southwest could
meet minimum relative humidity criteria today as well. At the time
of this writing, have opted to hold off on issuing a Fire Danger
Statement for today. The reason being is that we do not meet the
fuel moisture criteria of 8% or less as locations across the area
received rainfall over the last couple of days. However, should
the surface become drier and fuels are able to dry rapidly, a Fire
Danger Statement may be warranted in the next couple of hours.

As high pressure at the surface continues to build in while low
pressure develops over the Plains and gradually marches east, the
pressure gradient will begin to tighten and southeasterly winds
will begin to increase in speed. Wind speeds overnight Sunday will
ramp up, with sustained winds reaching to 20 mph with gusts up to
35 mph for locations generally north of the I-85 corridor. A Wind
Advisory beginning at midnight and lasting through Monday
afternoon has been issued. Winds will remain breezy through Monday
evening. Cloud coverage will begin increasing through the day
with moisture return. Near seasonal temperatures are anticipated
through the short term.

KAL


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 505 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

An expansive mid-/upper-level trough shifting across the central
and eastern CONUS will bring showers and isolated thunderstorms to
north and central GA Tuesday morning through Thursday afternoon.
Ensemble guidance is progging an associated low pressure system to
track northeastward across the Upper Midwest. Southerly flow
ahead of the trough and low pressure system will support a
moisture axis with PWAT around 1.25" to 1.75" (the FFC daily
maximum is around 1.50") over the CWA. An area of showers is
progged to move in ahead of the cold front associated with the low
pressure system on Tuesday morning. The moisture axis and showers
will shift eastward through the remainder of Tuesday into
Wednesday morning. Have limited thunder potential to a slight
chance as progged instability looks marginal at best, and on that
note, the potential for strong to severe storms is low. Showers
are expected to linger across the eastern portion of the CWA on
Thursday as the low occludes well to the north in Canada, causing
the moisture axis over the CWA to lose its eastward push. The
GEFS, EPS, and CMCE depict widespread rainfall totals of 0.8" to
1.5", which is reflected in our storm total QPF.

Monday night through Tuesday morning, before the aforementioned
showers move in, a low-level jet (characterized by winds at 45-55
kts at 850 mb) on the southeastern periphery of the low pressure
system over portions of north and west GA will result in 20-25 mph
sustained winds and gusts of 35-40 mph. Even gustier conditions
can be expected at the highest peaks of the mountains. As a
result, will almost certainly need another Wind Advisory for
Monday night through Tuesday morning. As far as the end of the
long-term period goes, Friday and Saturday will be dry, sunny, and
warm courtesy of an upper-level ridge and associated high
pressure system.

Martin


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 147 AM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. SKC will become
BKN250 by the afternoon/evening hours. NNW winds will shift to the
NE between 7 and 11Z. E winds between 10 and 12 KT will gust to
20 during the day.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
High confidence on all elements.

KAL


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  39  61  48 /   0   0   0  10
Atlanta         62  42  62  52 /   0   0   0  30
Blairsville     59  36  56  44 /   0   0   0  30
Cartersville    64  42  63  51 /   0   0   0  40
Columbus        67  46  70  58 /   0   0   0  10
Gainesville     59  40  59  48 /   0   0   0  20
Macon           64  43  66  54 /   0   0   0   0
Rome            66  42  64  51 /   0   0   0  50
Peachtree City  64  42  65  53 /   0   0   0  20
Vidalia         65  43  67  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ001>005-007-
011>016-019>023-030-031-041-042.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Monday for
GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030>032-041>043.

Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ006-008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAL
LONG TERM....Martin
AVIATION...KAL


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