857
FXUS62 KFFC 291841
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
241 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

 - Showers and thunderstorms will return on Tuesday as a shortwave
   trough traverses the area.

 - A couple of stronger storms are possible, though a significant
   severe threat is not expected.

Surface high pressure centered over the western Atlantic and ridging
aloft keep the area dry through the remainder of the day into
tonight. That will begin to change in short order, however, as a
shortwave trough approaches the area by tomorrow morning. An ongoing
broken line of showers and thunderstorms will initially push into
northwest Georgia during the predawn hours Tuesday and progress
eastward through midday. Given fairly limited morning instability,
CAMs generally support the notion of a gradual weakening trend
through late morning.

By afternoon, recovering SBCAPE should support the redevelopment of
additional scattered and thunderstorms. HREF mean SBCAPE looks to
max out over 1000 J/kg in Middle Georgia during the afternoon,
potentially supportive of a few stronger thunderstorms. Weak shear
and overall dynamics will limit the severe threat, but an isolated
storm could potentially reach marginally severe limits and produce
gusty winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps small hail. Generally a
quarter to half on inch rainfall totals are probable, though locally
higher totals are possible within heavier thunderstorms. Activity
will then gradually wane and depart eastward by the evening as the
wave exits east.

RW

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Key Messages:

 - Very warm and mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday.

 - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late in the week
   into the weekend.

The departing shortwave will give way to upper level ridging through
the remainder of the work week. Other than isolated lingering
showers and thunderstorms in the SE on Wed, this ridge should usher
in a couple of days of dry weather. This will also be the warmest
stretch of the long term period, with temperatures rising well into
80s across most non-mountainous areas. In fact, some locations will
rise above 90 degrees (with the best chance on Thursday afternoon
near and S of Macon). These highs will will be about 8 to 12 degrees
above normal.

The ridge will begin to break down on Friday as a short wave moves
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The combination of the
approaching dynamic forcing and the warm, moist air in place will
bring increasing shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the
area (with the best chances across N and N central GA. With the
fairly weak dynamic energy, thunderstorm activity is expected to
remain mostly diurnal in nature, with widespread organized
thunderstorms not currently anticipated. High temperatures will
still be about 5 degrees above normal.

SEC

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 121 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR cigs will prevail through this evening with SCT/BKN cu in the
4-6 kft range. MVFR cigs will become increasingly likely by 12-14Z
at ATL area sites as SHRA begin to encroach from the west. Sct
SHRA are expected into Tuesday afternoon with chance for sct TSRA
likely maximized 17-22Z before ending from W to E. MVFR cigs
likely transition to VFR by 18Z. SE winds will prevail at 5-10 kts
through tonight before shifting to SW by 12-14Z.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on Sun AM cigs and SHRA/TSRA timing.
High confidence on winds.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          81  60  79  58 /   0   0  70  40
Atlanta         81  62  77  60 /   0  30  80  20
Blairsville     75  57  71  54 /   0  40  90  40
Cartersville    82  61  76  57 /   0  60  90  10
Columbus        85  65  82  62 /   0  10  70  10
Gainesville     79  61  75  59 /   0  20  80  30
Macon           83  62  82  61 /   0   0  70  30
Rome            83  62  77  57 /   0  70  90  10
Peachtree City  82  62  79  58 /   0  20  70  20
Vidalia         84  62  86  65 /   0   0  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....SEC
AVIATION...RW