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000
FXUS64 KHUN 170615
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
115 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

High based -SHRA (mostly sprinkles) continues basically along and
east of I-65 being fed by the LLJ and theta-E advection in the mid
levels. Further west, a band of -SHRA/TSRA continues in an arc
from northwest MS into southwest TN. The CAMS show varying
solutions today, but am leaning toward a weakening trend of this
line as it shifts east this morning. Through the day,
redevelopment of this line may occur, but it will be outrunning
the greater CAPE, low to mid level heights will be increasing as
the flow aloft becomes more west to east. Thus, any threat of
severe weather looks rather low at this point. With temperatures
still holding in the lower to middle 70s, it won`t take much to
reach highs in the middle to upper 70s this afternoon despite the
SHRA and TSRA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday night)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Any lingering SHRA and TSRA in our southern counties will end
early this evening. Lower and mid level clouds will likely remain
abundant as well with flow also remaining southerly. Thus, expect
a rather mild overnight again with lows in the lower to middle
60s for most areas.

The more zonal pattern will lend itself to multiple shortwaves
tracking east through the southern U.S. the next few days. The
next of these arrives Thursday evening, although the NAM and even
moreso the GFS suggests a rather early arrival of SHRA/TSRA
Thursday afternoon as theta-E advection increases. Will maintain
the low PoP, but confidence in this is low at this time. Highs
should reach the lower to middle 80s.

Better chances of SHRA and TSRA will exist Thursday night into
Friday morning as a plume of CAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg ahead
of an approaching cold front arrive. 6km bulk shear values of
30-40kt will also be present, so a few strong to marginally severe
storms are possible, mainly posing a hail and wind threat at this
point. As the front shifts southeast, CAPE values may increase
with daytime heating in our south/southeastern forecast area,
mainly southeast of Moulton-Guntersville. The threat should end
by early Friday evening as the front shifts southeast of the
area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 115 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Cooler and more stable air will arrive on Saturday. But zonal flow
and additional shortwaves will push east from TX through the Gulf
states. Chances of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
(elevated) will increase substantially Saturday night into Sunday
as the strongest of the shortwaves arrives. The rainfall and
clouds will also keep temperatures much chillier than this past
week, with lows in the 40s Sunday morning and only in the upper
50s to lower 60s Sunday. By Monday morning, lows will be in the
lower 40s for most locations. But then, temperatures modify into
early next week as modest mid and upper level ridging takes place
over the southeast U.S., with highs back fully into the 70s by
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1112 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

LLWS is expected for the next several hours through 13-16Z. VFR
flight weather conditions will transition to MVFR by 13-16Z as an
area of SHRA and TSRA moves west to east across north AL and
southern middle TN. Ceilings will drop into the 010-020 AGL range
at times as this precipitation moves through. By 18-20Z, ceilings
will climb to ~025 AGL for a few hours before lifting at or above
050agl (VFR) by 20-23Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM....17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17