303
FXUS64 KHUN 030215
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
915 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight)
Issued at 914 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

A weak cold front will continue to approach the Tennessee Valley
overnight in response to a mid/upper low shifting into the Great
Lakes. With high pressure shifting east of the area, southerly
flow has helped to advect in Gulf moisture as seen by the mid 60s
dewpoints in the latest 02z observations. Ahead of this front,
sufficient forcing and deeper moisture will allow for low to
medium (30-60%) chances for showers and a few elevated
thunderstorms to develop, especially after 06z. More widespread
and higher chances (60-80%) for showers/storms are forecast during
the day on Friday as the front slowly moves in (more on this in
the section below). For the overnight period, however, dense cloud
cover and slowly increasing PoPs will result in temperatures
holding fairly steady in the mid to upper 60s. Thus, a very mild
and somewhat humid night will be in store for the Tennessee
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

With the deterioration of mid level ridging, a more zonal flow
pattern will allow for several shortwaves to ripple through the
area through the duration of the short term and into the long
term. By morning on Friday, the first of these shortwaves will be
moving through the area. High (60-80%) rain chances will be
present in NW AL and progress east throughout the day. Best
chances for rain and storms currently look to be Friday, Saturday,
and Sunday afternoon. The atmosphere will be very saturated and
favorable for efficient rainfall production with periods of heavy
rainfall possible all weekend. Friday there is a marginal risk
(1/4) for excessive rainfall, however with QPF amounts through the
weekend continuing to remain below an inch, the overall flooding
threat is low. Areas that experience periods of heavy rainfall
could see some brief nuisance flooding due to slow moving storms.
Aside from heavy rainfall, frequent lightning from elevated
thunderstorms will be the only other threat to outdoor activities
this weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 129 AM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Warm and active weather will continue through the long term period. By
Sunday, another shortwave will track over the area, resulting in
medium chances (50-60%) for showers and storms especially during the
afternoon hours. This activity will likely linger through at least
the early part of Monday, especially given the warm sectored airmass
in place. Broad upper ridging and west/southwesterly flow aloft will
keep low chances for rain and thunder in the forecast through the
remainder of the long term forecast, primarily north of the TN River
where better synoptic forcing will be in place. H85 temps will rise
through the work week as strong southwesterly flow continues to
support a warming trend, with highs could reach the 90 degree mark by
on Wednesday. Overnight lows will warm each night too, beginning in
the mid 60s Sunday night rising to the lower 70s Tuesday and
Wednesday nights. Will definitely feel more like summer by the middle
of the week!

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Light showers have progressed over the local area late this
afternoon. Mentioned VCSH for the HSV terminal, but rain chances
will likely decrease over the next hour or two. Rain and storm
chances will then increase from the west later this evening and
overnight, with low to medium chances (30-60%) by Friday morning
(highest chances over NW AL and areas generally north of the TN
River). Rain and storm chances are then expected to persist
through the afternoon and into the evening hours on Friday. While
no severe weather is forecast at this time, expect some gusty
winds and brief downpours in the heavier showers/storms tonight
and tomorrow. Lower CIGs to MVFR (and perhaps some instances of
IFR) are anticipated by late tonight through Friday morning as
well, along with slight reductions in VIS. Southerly winds will
generally remain around 5 knots or less overnight, then shift
Friday morning to be southwesterly at around 10 knots.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...AMP.24
SHORT TERM....RAD
LONG TERM....25
AVIATION...26