Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 261721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1221 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Updated to include the 18z aviation discussion.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1035 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

UPDATE...Morning Update.

An upper level low is evident on radar, but the backside of the
rain shield is showing significant progress to the East. Rainfall
rates are impressive for an upper level low. Much of the Midsouth
has already picked up between one half and one inch of rain with
another half to three quarters of an inch expected over North
Mississippi. Temperatures generally in the middle 50s, likely
warming into the low 60s this afternoon. Little to no thunder has
been noted, and no storms are expected to be severe.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 401 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

An upper low is providing widespread rain to the Midsouth early
this morning. Expect the low to move east of the area later today
bringing the rain to an end from west to east. A second shortwave
will approach from the northwest tonight and move to the south on
Friday. This shortwave will be too weak and too far to the south
to provide any precipitation on Friday.

A back door cold front will move through the forecast area from
the north-northeast Saturday. The airmass behind the front over
the weekend will be dry with slightly below normal temperatures.

An upper ridge will build into the area from the west early next
week allowing temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to near 80
by Tuesday. A slowly approaching cold front from the west will
increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and



/18z TAFs/

Light rain showers will continue across portions of the Mid-South
this afternoon as an upper-level trough moves across the region.
Improving flight conditions are expected this afternoon as the
precipitation gradually shifts eastward with generally VFR
conditions anticipated this afternoon. Fog will be possible
overnight, especially in areas where the heavier rainfall occurred
that manage to clear out. Winds will diminish after 00z, becoming
light from the northwest. Expect northwest winds increasing to
around 8 kts by mid/late Friday morning.





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