Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 270127
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
827 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 820 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Updated to refresh the Frost Advisory for tonight that includes
all of west Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and portions of east
Arkansas. Lows tonight and Wednesday night are expected to be in
the middle to upper 30s across most of the Midsouth. We should get
progressively warmer each day this week with highs back near 70
by Friday and in the middle to upper 70s over the weekend. Our
next chance of rain will arrive early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Mild and dry conditions will prevail through Easter weekend as
high pressure dominates. A warming trend will set up midweek with
temperatures back in the 70s by Friday. The next cold front with
50 to 60% chance of rain will arrive early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

The last signs of a cold front are exiting the region this
afternoon, though a thick deck of post-frontal stratus is still
sitting over the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Earlier runs of
high-res models from this morning brought the post-frontal cloud
deck all the way down to Memphis. However, given the satellite
trends of quickly scattering clouds, this southward shift in the
cloud cover is looking less likely. Overnight conditions will
most likely be more conducive for frost development due to
temperatures in the mid to upper 30s with the potential to
cool further as a radiational cooling scenario develops. As a
result, a Frost Advisory is in effect for the early Wednesday
morning hours essentially along and north of Interstate 40.

The rest of the midweek pattern looks extremely benign as a broad
area of high pressure parks itself over the Ozarks. The surface
high will gradually shift off to the Carolinas by Friday, which
will allow return flow and thus a warming trend to set back up
over the Mid-South. Expect temperatures to warm into the mid 70s
by Saturday, even pushing 80 degrees on Easter Sunday. Dry weather
looks to prevail through the weekend with ideal conditions for any
outdoor activities.

Long range models are hinting at a broad positively tilted trough
ejecting from the Four Corners early next week. There does look to
be a decent corridor of low to midlevel moisture ahead of the
associated cold front; forecast PWATs around 1.25 inches are
exceeding the 90th percentile on Monday and Tuesday. Ensemble
probabilities are showing a broad swath of at least 50% chance of
exceeding 500 J/kg of SBCAPE on Monday evening during FROPA over
the ArkLaTex. This type of cool season setup generally poses a
low severe weather threat 4-7 days out due to low confidence in
thermodynamics but needs to be watched closely for trends.
Regardless, we are carrying 50-60% chance of rain Monday night and
Tuesday with 1/2 to 1 inch of rain.

CAD

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024

A semi-tight pressure gradient remains over the Mid-South at this
hour, resulting in intermittent gusts up to 20 kts at MEM/MKL/TUP
over the next hour or so. As high pressure continues to build
east, winds will die down through sunrise. North/northeast winds
look to pick up to around 9 kts tomorrow across all terminals.
VFR conditions will remain through the TAF period.

AEH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048.

MO...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...AEH


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