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000
FXUS64 KMEG 140915
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
415 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

We should remain mostly dry today and Monday with high
temperatures in the lower 80s. Rain and thunderstorms
return Tuesday when there could be some strong to severe
thunderstorms. The remainder of the work week looks unsettled
featuring sub severe showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures
should be fairly steady through Thursday, in the low to middle
80s. A fairly stout cold front will knock high temperatures down
into the 70s Friday and 60s by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Weak northwest flow is in place across the middle and lower
Mississippi River Valley as a ridge builds over the Plains. As a
result, warm and dry conditions should continue across the
Midsouth through Monday although a weak disturbance tracking
through south Missouri could bring an isolated shower to far
northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel midday Sunday.

Southerly flow has already returned to the Midsouth and will
steadily strengthen over the next 48 hours or longer ushering deep
Gulf Moisture across the region. Along and west of the
Mississippi River, dew points could reach 65 degrees ahead of the
next storm system on track to reach the Midsouth Tuesday. An
unusually moist airmass featuring Precipitable Water values over
1.7 inches will likely break mid April records and set the stage
for a round of strong to severe thunderstorms. Southerly surface
winds will strengthen on Tuesday in response to a seasonably
strong (988 mb) surface low near the Kansas/Nebraska state line.
NBM probabilistic guidance has a greater than 70% chance of
sustained winds greater than 25 mph Tuesday for most of northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and along the Mississippi River
north of Memphis. Potential for wind gusts over 40 MPH covers a
significantly larger portion of the Midsouth including all of the
Mississippi River Valley, East Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel.
The probability of wind gusts of 40 mph or higher is greater than
70% generally along and west of a line from central Obion county,
TN to central Tallahatchie county, MS. This includes all of the
Memphis Metro. A wind Advisory will likely be needed.

The severe thunderstorm threat for the Midsouth will be mostly
limited to areas along and west of the Mississippi River with the
greatest threat in northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel,
closer to the dynamic support. A straight (115-120kt) subtropical
jet streak will be oriented from southeast New Mexico into
southwest Missouri by midday Tuesday. This should be a textbook
application of the 4-quadrant Jet theory placing the Midsouth in
the right-exit region which is not ideal for severe thunderstorms.
However, a 45kt LLJ should help to offset the placement of the
upper jet resulting in at least a few robust thunderstorms.
Instability has finally come around a bit. The GFS now features
450-850 SB CAPE. Lapse Rates are generally 6-6.5 C/km by midday
and 0-3km SRH increases from about 150(m/s)^2 midday to well over
350(m/s)^2 before sunset. These parameters should support all
modes of severe weather including marginally large hail and the
potential for tornadoes, but damaging wind is likely the primary
threat. We could also see wind damage from non-thunderstorm winds
as we alluded to in the previous paragraph. Any outflow
boundaries from storms earlier in the day could increase the
chance of a tornado as SRH is maximized during the evening hours.

At least a few showers will likely remain in the forecast each
day Wednesday into next weekend. The airmass behind the Tuesday
storm system is Pacific in origin, so no drastic cool down is
expected. Highs should remain in the upper 70s to low 80s
Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front is expected to usher in
cooler conditions by Friday. High temperatures are expected to be
in the 70s Friday and 60s by Saturday.

30/Sirmon

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds
will be from the south at around 10 knots overnight before increasing
to 10 to 15 knots with higher gusts on Sunday.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...ARS