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Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

000
FNUS71 KAKQ 161442
FWSAKQ

Spot Forecast for Pollinator burn...MD  forest service
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1042 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on April 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.

.DISCUSSION...
Mostly sunny skies are expected today with good mixing. Minimum RH
values will be around 30 percent this afternoon with northeast
winds becoming southeast. Isolated showers are possible Wednesday
before a stronger cold front crosses the area towards the end of the
week.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 71.
Min humidity........29 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5 to 7 mph shifting to the southeast
                    6 to 7 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 7 to 12 mph shifting to the west around 3
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (30200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................12 to 42.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   7   8   10  11  12  12
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............66  66  67  68  69  70  69
RH..............36  34  33  32  31  29  30
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  E   E   E   SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..8   7   7   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.13  12  12  11  11  11  11
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 3.4 3.9 4.4 3.8 3.2 2.6
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  N   N   NW  W   W
Transp wind spd.12  10  8   7   6   5   3
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   2   2   2
ADI.............42  42  40  38  25  17  12
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30  30  29  26  18  12  9
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers overnight.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 7 mph decreasing to around 2 mph
                    after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft).
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................1 to 11.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........14  15  17  20  22  25  35  46  56  58  60  63
Weather cov.....                                SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20
Temp............67  66  62  60  58  57  56  56  55  54  54  53
RH..............33  34  41  44  49  51  53  55  57  61  66  71
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3
20 FT wind gust.9   9   8   8   7   6   6   6   6   6   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.5   6   7   7   6   5   5   5   5   3   2   2
LVORI...........2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3
ADI.............11  3   3   3   2   2   2   3   3   2   1   1
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8   6   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning, then chance
                    of rain showers early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph early
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 10 mph increasing to 13 to 14
                    mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (900 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to fair (19900 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................2 to 29.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........67     75     83     90     95     94
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     30     30     30     30
Temp............52     54     60     65     67     69
RH..............80     83     75     68     65     61
20 ft wind......SE 4   SE 5   SE 6   SE 7   SE 8   SE 8
20 ft wind gust.6      8      11     12     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....400    500    1300   1700   1700   1300
Transport wind..S 2    SE 5   S 10   S 14   SE 13  SE 13
LVORI...........4      5      3      3      3      2
ADI.............2      4      18     29     27     21
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1      2      12     20     19     14
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...ROGERS
Requested by...Lance Carroll
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411111.0/AKQ
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL lance.carroll@maryland.gov