Spot Forecast Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
000
FNUS71 KAKQ 220916
FWSAKQ
Spot Forecast for Daniels...Fort Walker
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
516 AM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on March 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.
.DISCUSSION...
High pressure remains over the area into this afternoon before
sliding offshore. Remaining dry (although much improved from
previous days) into this afternoon with RH values dropping to 35-40%
by early this afternoon. Light NE winds early this morning become
E 5-10 mph by late morning, becoming SE ~10 mph this afternoon.
Mostly sunny skies with some cirrus this morning, becoming mostly
cloudy by this afternoon. With increasing moisture advection, dew
points and RH values gradually increase later this afternoon into
this evening. A low pressure system approaches the area late
today into Sat, bringing increasing moisture and a widespread
wetting rain with 1.5-2"+ of rain expected tonight through Sat.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 57.
Min humidity........38 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in
the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......4100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 7 to 10 mph shifting to the southeast 14
to 17 mph late in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (7400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (52400 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................11 early in the morning increasing to 60 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26 31 35 45 54 64 65 67 69
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10
Temp............39 44 48 50 53 56 56 56 56
RH..............57 47 42 42 39 38 40 43 45
20 FT wind dir..E E E SE SE SE SE SE SE
20 FT wind spd..4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8
20 FT wind gust.7 9 9 12 12 13 13 13 14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 2.1 2.9 3.3 3.7 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.3
Transp wind dir.E E SE SE SE SE SE SE SE
Transp wind spd.7 10 14 15 15 15 16 17 17
LVORI...........2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............11 28 50 60 39 41 43 44 43
Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..7 19 35 42 48 52 52 52 49
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR FR FR FR FR FR FR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
early in the evening. Rain late in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 49.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (33200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2800 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................6 to 34.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........73 77 80 86 91 97 98 99 100 100 100 100
Weather cov..... CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type.... RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN RN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 50 50 50 90 90 90 100 100 100 100
Temp............54 52 51 50 50 50 50 51 51 52 52 53
RH..............50 56 61 68 74 80 83 86 89 89 93 96
20 FT wind dir..SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE SE E E
20 FT wind spd..8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 6
20 FT wind gust.14 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 8 8 11 11
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 1.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.SE SE SE SE SE E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.16 15 14 13 12 10 9 8 8 8 8 9
LVORI...........1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 6
ADI.............34 17 12 11 8 7 6 6 7 7 8 8
Haines index....3 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..33 18 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain in the morning
and early afternoon, then rain showers likely
late in the afternoon. Chance of rain showers
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......100 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........77 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 7 to 10 mph shifting to the north 10
to 13 mph with gusts to around 22 mph in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......1900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 10 mph increasing to north 14 to 23
mph late in the afternoon, then increasing to
around 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (41000 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............6.
ADI.................5 early in the morning increasing to 47 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........100 100 100 100 100 95
Weather cov.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY LIKELY
Weather type....RAIN RAIN RAIN RAIN RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).100 100 100 100 70 70
Temp............53 54 56 56 55 55
RH..............96 96 96 93 90 83
20 ft wind......E 7 E 8 E 9 NE 10 N 11 N 13
20 ft wind gust.12 14 14 15 19 22
Mix hgt (ft)....400 500 700 900 1100 1600
Transport wind..E 10 SE 10 SE 6 E 8 NW 18 N 23
LVORI...........6 6 7 6 4 4
ADI.............9 12 6 10 26 40
Haines index....3 2 2 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 4 3 6 18 33
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
$$
Forecaster...MILLER
Requested by...Beth Cantrell
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2407902.0/AKQ
.DELDT 03/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL beth.cantrell.civ@army.mil