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000
FXUS61 KALY 190254
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1054 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will settle south along the New England
coast providing a cool and damp onshore flow with isolated showers
ending overnight. After a brief break overnight into Friday morning,
additional showers are likely Friday afternoon and night associated
with a cold frontal passage. Cool and breezy conditions return for
the upcoming weekend, with a few passing showers possible Saturday,
and dry conditions for Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
.UPDATE as 1054 pm EDT...High pressure continue to build
westward from eastern New England. An occluded front has fallen
apart, as a weak low pressure system passes well south and east
of Long Island. The onshore east to southeast flow will continue
with clouds continuing overnight. The 00Z KALY has a strong
inversion above 900 hPa with the stratus stuck in place. Some
isolated showers will linger over the Upper Hudson River Valley
and Lake George for a few more hours. We adjusted the Pops and
WX and the isolated light showers based on KENX radar trends.
Lows will be in the mid 30s to lower to isolated mid 40s.

PREV DISCUSSION [0329 PM EDT]...

A few breaks of sunshine are possible early Fri with the ridge
axis aloft over the area, but skies should remain mostly cloudy
overall. The ridge axis then shifts east of our area by Friday
afternoon, as a cold front starts to approach from the west.
Later Fri afternoon into Fri evening, the cold front will bring
widespread showers north/west of the Capital District, becoming
more scattered from Albany south/east with a low level S-SW
flow resulting in some downsloping. Rainfall amounts will be
light with < 0.25" expected. Prior to the cold front arriving,
high temperatures should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s in
lower elevations and lower/mid 50s in the higher terrain.
Southerly winds will increase ahead of the front, with gusts of
20-30 mph developing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Guidance in good agreement indicating the cold front passing
through from west to east Friday evening into Fri night. Mainly
isolated to scattered showers will occur along the front, with
dry conditions developing in its wake. It will take much of the
night for the front to clear the entire area. With mostly cloudy
skies and a developing westerly breeze behind the front, low
temperatures will be held up a bit despite cold advection
ranging from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Saturday starts out dry with surface ridging extending
north/east from the Ohio Valley/mid Atlantic region. Some
sunshine is expected during the morning to early afternoon,
which should help boost temperatures into the upper 50s/lower
60s in the valleys. Then, a fairly potent upper level short
wave approaching from the Great Lakes will move across the
region Sat afternoon into early Sat evening. This disturbance
will bring increasing clouds and widely scattered showers, along
with gusty westerly winds around 25-35 mph developing. Some
snow flakes could mix in across the higher terrain.

Drying/clearing will quickly take place Sat night in wake of
the disturbance, with surface ridging extending north/east into
our area. Lows will be colder than recent nights, with upper 20s
to around 30 expected in the higher terrain and lower/mid 30s
in the lower elevations. There will remain a westerly breeze,
but winds will not be as gusty as during the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday looks to be dry and cool with zonal flow aloft and weak
surface ridging. Some instability clouds will likely develop,
but there still should be plenty of breaks through the day. It
will be breezy as well, with W-NW winds gusting 20-30 mph at
times. Highs will be slightly below normal, with mid/upper 40s
in the higher terrain and mid/upper 50s in lower elevations.

Dry conditions and moderating temperatures should occur on
Monday, with a small area of high pressure in place. Tuesday
should start out dry with a mild southerly flow developing ahead
of a cyclone approaching from the Midwest. Chances for showers
will increase later in the day into Tue evening as this system
gets closer. There are model differences with regards to the
track/evolution so will mention mainly chance to likely PoPs for
now Tue night through Wed as the system moves across our
region.

A much colder air mass then builds in Wed night into Thu with
NW and potentially strong cold advection developing. Mainly
dry/breezy conditions are expected, with below normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure continues to build in from the Gulf of Maine this
evening as an occluded front remains over western NY and PA.
The light drizzle and isolated showers have move westward of the
TAF sites with lingering MVFR/low VFR stratus at
KPOU/KALB/KGFL/KPSF.

The stratus may linger at the TAF sites in the high MVFR range
at 2.5-3 kft AGL until 10Z-13Z/FRI and then will lift to VFR
levels in the 3.5-5 kft AGL in the late morning into the early
afternoon ahead of the next disturbance. The clouds will thicken
and lower in the late afternoon with some light rain or showers
arriving at KALB-KGFL between 22Z/FRI to 00Z/SAT. Cigs and
vsbys will lower back to MVFR levels.

The winds will be from east to southeast at 7 KT or less
tonight. The winds will increase from the south to southeast at
8-15 KT with some gusts 20-25 KT at KALB/KPSF in the afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV/Wasula
NEAR TERM...JPV/Wasula
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...Wasula