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000
FXUS61 KALY 231945
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 PM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny, breezy, and mild conditions continue into this evening,
when high pressure will depart ahead of an approaching frontal
system. Light rain showers develop overnight into Wednesday,
with gusty winds and cooler temperatures arriving behind the
cold front tomorrow night. Surface high pressure brings a return
to mild and dry weather to end the workweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Weak surface high pressure squeezed between an approaching
frontal low to the west and a cutoff low drifting northward to
the east over the Atlantic will be steadily nudged out of the
region this evening. Under its influence, temperatures have
risen well above normal, reaching highs mostly in the 60s across
the region, and some pockets near 70 along the Hudson and Mohawk
Valleys. A surface low moving over the Great Lakes while
surface high pressure remains centered to the south has allowed
for breezy south to southeast winds to develop for this
afternoon, with gusts of around 25 mph possible for much of the
region through this evening. In collaboration with state
environment and forestry agencies, a Special Weather Statement
for enhanced risk of fire spread remains in place across
southern Vermont and east-central New York thanks to these gusty
winds combined with low surface humidity.

Clear skies continue across much of the Northeast, however high
clouds will initially increase from the west this afternoon and
evening before lower clouds arrive overnight. A positively-
tilted trough and associated frontal system will bring overcast
skies and scattered rain showers beginning overnight.
Precipitation is expected to remain light, with rainfall
accumulations of less than 0.25 inches expected for most.
Beneath overcast skies and with ongoing precipitation, overnight
temperatures remain mild with lows only dipping into the upper
30s to mid 40s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned surface low will make its nearest approach
Wednesday morning, passing over the Adirondacks and continuing
to the northeast through the day. Rain shower coverage will
likely be higher in the vicinity of the low, with more scattered
coverage elsewhere, particularly to the south and east of the
Capital District, where there may be some breaks of sun into the
afternoon. These breaks may allow for enough additional surface
heating to result in sufficient destabilization for a few
rumbles of thunder within any convective rain shower, although
confidence in any occurrences of thunder remains low.

Precipitation will taper from west to east through the
afternoon, although it may linger longer in favored upslope
areas as surface flow turns out of the west. Much of the region
will see gusts reaching 20-25 mph behind the cold frontal
passage, while the arrival of cooler air may yield some wet snow
in the highest terrain of the southern Greens and Adirondacks,
however little to no accumulation is expected.

As surface high pressure quickly builds in behind the cold
front, dry weather, clear skies, and cooler temperatures will
persist Wednesday night through Thursday night. Afternoon highs
each day may only reach the 40s in high terrain, with 50s at
lower elevations. Cold overnight lows in the upper 10s to upper
20s on Wednesday night will moderate slightly by Thursday night,
when temperatures will reach the mid 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low level ridging builds into the region Friday with sunny weather.
Highs Friday in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Warm advection begins
later Friday as high pressure builds east and south.

Upper ridging builds into our region from the west Saturday through
Monday and as the upper ridge axis shifts east of our region Monday
and beyond, increasing warm advection and moisture advection will
support increasing clouds and eventually chances for showers.

Clouds and showers will gradually build into our region from the
west and north each day, with scattered showers reaching western and
northern areas Saturday as weak upper energy tries to track around
the northern periphery of the upper ridging. More clouds than sun by
Saturday afternoon and that trend will continue through Monday but
there will be some periods of sun along with increasing warm
advection to help temperatures warm each day, especially Monday.
Highs Saturday in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Highs Sunday in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs Monday in the 70s to around 80.

By Tuesday, the upper ridge axis shifts well to the east and
southwest boundary layer winds increase along with low level
forcing/convergence, instability and moisture, supporting better
chances for showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible, with the
warm airmass in the region and associated instability. Highs Tuesday
in the 70s with some mid 60s to around 70 higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected to persist through
this evening and into tonight. High clouds will increase from the
west ahead of an approaching frontal system, with bkn ci expected by
21Z Tue-03Z Wed. Cigs will continue to lower to 4-6 kft, however
MVFR cigs are also possible as rain showers begin by 08-12Z Wed.
Light rainfall rates should allow for minimal reductions to vsbys,
with VFR vsbys expected and MVFR possible in heavier rain shower
elements.

South to southeast winds at 10-15 kt gusting 15-25 kt will continue
at all terminals into this evening, with speeds diminishing to 8-12
kt and gusts ending by 00-04Z Wed. Low-level wind shear may briefly
exceed 30 kt out of the southwest at PSF during the overnight hours,
however lower altitude terminals are expected to remain below
criteria. Winds shift out of the southwest after 09-12Z Wed, before
a shift out of the west following the cold frontal passage by 15Z
Wed. Behind the front, another period of sustained winds of 10-15 kt
and gusts of 15-20 kt is possible.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will shift eastward today bringing partly to
mostly sunny, breezy and milder weather with temperatures rising
into the 60s with some upper 50s across the higher elevations. RH
values will lower to 25 to 35 percent during the afternoon hours
with southerly winds gusting to around 25 mph.

A period of rainfall is expected tonight through Wednesday and
may mix with or end as a brief period of snow across portions of
the Adirondacks and southern Greens before ending. Dry weather
then returns for Thursday and Friday with winds generally 5 to
15 mph both days.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Picard
NEAR TERM...Picard
SHORT TERM...Picard
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Picard
FIRE WEATHER...Rathbun