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000
FXUS64 KAMA 131957
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
257 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM ...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A dry forecast across the Panhandles for the short term forecast
period. Some breezy southwest winds at times this afternoon where
elevated fire weather conditions in the NW Panhandles continue
through sunset. Winds will then diminish as a broad H500 ridge
moves over the Panhandles from the central Rockies. Low
temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s in the NW
Panhandles to mid 50s in the SE Texas Panhandles.

With the aforementioned ridge moving over the Panhandles for
tomorrow, winds will subside to 5-10 mph out of the south. H850
WAA values of +23C to +25C by tomorrow afternoon will result in
high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s in the western
Panhandles to lower 90s for areas off the Caprock. Light southerly
winds will continue tomorrow night with low temperatures ranging
from the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Meccariello

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Gusty winds, fire weather, and a conditional risk of severe
storms could all be on the docket Monday, with highest confidence
residing in the winds and critical fire threat. The anticipated
closed low is currently sitting off the northern California coast,
and is progged to move eastward, north of the Four Corners region
by Monday afternoon. This track is fairly well agreed upon by
models, representing a slightly further north and slower solution
compared to previous runs. As a result, quality deep layer
moisture may struggle to be pulled northward until later in the
day. Early showers associated with theta-e advection are also
looking more likely across the southeast, and may throw a wrench
in afternoon convective initiation. Based on the slower trend and
possible morning convection, storms may fail to materialize until
later in the evening hours when a Pacific front catches up to the
dryline, which may also push the storm threat out of our area
entirely. On the flip side, if sfc winds can develop a more
easterly component, the slower solution may allow the dryline to
hang further west than current projections suggest. Regardless,
the dryline is generally expected to set up in the vicinity of the
eastern Panhandles by late afternoon and evening hours, with
sufficient shear and instability ahead of it to support severe
thunderstorms, wherever and whenever they ultimately develop.
Steep mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear of 40-50 kts
would likely favor a large hail and damaging wind threat, but
should richer deep-layer and sfc moisture materialize, isolated
tornadoes would also be possible.

Deep sfc cyclogenesis has trended further north along with the
upper system, leading to a less impressive pressure gradient for
our area. Southwesterly winds will still be on the strong side
though (especially for the northwest Panhandles), sustained 25-35
mph with gusts of 40-50 mph. The combination of warm, windy, and
dry conditions will support another critical fire danger for the
combined NW Panhandles. Expect areas of blowing dust to tag along
with the winds behind the dryline, leading to localized areas of
reduced visibility. Strongest winds of the period may hold off
till Monday night into Tuesday when very strong subsidence and
rapid height rises in the wake of the low arrive. These synoptic
features would promote mixing of 40-50 mph winds to the surface
Tue morning into the afternoon for the northern and central
Panhandles, until the system departs. After a warm Wednesday,
another front is set to move in Wednesday night, with breezy winds
and much cooler temperatures on Thursday and Friday.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected throughout the 18Z TAF period at all
TAF sites. Winds will be out of the southwest at 10 to 20 kts with
some higher gusts at times, along with just a few high clouds.

Meccariello

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

A deepening surface low will help to generate strong sustained
southwest winds of 25-35 mph with gusts of 40-50 mph possible
across the northwest half of the Panhandles. Very dry air will
settle in behind a dryline, with minimum RH values of 5-10% west
of a Guymon to Adrian line. These conditions coinciding with
temperatures in the 80s and very dry fuels would lend to high
RFTIs of 4 to 8, with isolated 9s possible around Cimarron and
Dallam counties. Critical to high-end critical fire weather will
be possible.

Harrel

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  87  52  84 /   0   0   0  10
Beaver OK                  48  92  50  89 /   0   0   0  10
Boise City OK              47  84  47  83 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  54  92  54  89 /   0   0   0  10
Boys Ranch TX              48  88  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  49  87  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               52  89  55  82 /   0   0   0  10
Dalhart TX                 44  85  45  82 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  47  89  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                48  86  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                52  92  54  86 /   0   0   0  10
Pampa TX                   54  89  55  84 /   0   0   0  10
Shamrock TX                52  91  53  83 /   0   0   0  20
Wellington TX              51  91  53  82 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...29