861
AXNT20 KNHC 302119
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed May 1 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 13N16W and continues southwestward to 02N25W. The
ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 01245W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 06N between 10W
and 20W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection persists over the northwest Gulf of
Mexico, and off the western Florida panhandle, along a trough
extending from roughly Pensacola to off Tampico, Mexico. High
pressure over the western Atlantic is supporting gentle to
moderate SE winds across the Gulf, along with 3 to 5 ft combined
seas. Light to moderate smoke from agricultural fires over
southern Mexico are creating hazy conditions for much of the
southwest Gulf.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and
lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will support fresh to
occasionally strong winds in the western half of the Gulf Wed
night into the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in
the eastern half of the Gulf. Winds will pulse to strong speeds
nightly near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local
effects induced by a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer satellite passes indicated moderate to fresh
trade winds across the central Caribbean today, with strong winds
pulsing south of Hispaniola of Cabo Beata, and off the coast of
northeast Colombia These winds are active between strong high
pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic, and lower
pressure to the south over Colombia. Concurrent altimeter
satellite passes showed 4 to 6 ft combined seas, reaching 7 ft
south of Haiti. Scatterometer data also showed fresh to strong
winds over the Gulf of Honduras north of Roatan, where combined
seas are likely 4 to 6 ft. Moderate E to SE winds and 3 to 5 ft
are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active south of Puerto Rico.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area is
expected to slide eastward and weaken some over the next few
days, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate trade winds midweek
and into the weekend. Northerly swell will support rough seas
through the passages in the NE Caribbean through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

1021 mb high pressure is centered between Bermuda and northeast
Florida near 30N70W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N38W to 25N42W, then
it becomes stationary to 21N52W. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated this pattern is supporting fresh winds
off the north coast of Hispaniola and across the Old Bahama
Channel north of eastern Cuba. Buoy observations and earlier
altimeter satellite data show combined seas of 8 to 10 ft west of
the front as far west as 65W, and reaching as far south to almost
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. A scatterometer pass showed
fresh to strong SW winds north of 29N between 55W and 60W, ahead
of a weak cold front east of Bermuda. Moderate winds and seas are
noted elsewhere west of 35W. Farther east, high pressure east of
the Azores is supporting a large area of fresh to strong NE
winds and 8 to 11 ft over the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will continue over the waters south of 22N and west of 60W
through Wed, including in the approaches of the Windward Passage.
The high pressure will move eastward while weakening some. A
surface trough may develop just north of Hispaniola over the next
48 hours and move east toward the waters just north of Puerto
Rico by the end of the work week.

$$
Christensen