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000
FXUS61 KBGM 141830
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
230 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A fast-moving area of low pressure will move over Central New
York and Northeastern Pennsylvania Sunday. This will result in
bringing widespread showers and strong to severe thunderstorms
across the forecast area. Heading into the early week, Monday
and Tuesday will be dry, with showers returning Wednesday and
lasting the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Early this afternoon a cluster of renegade showers moved
through NE PA which was poorly modeled by the hi-res guidance.
One cell produced a bit of lightning over Luzerne county as it
moved through. Currently, clusters of showers and isolated
thunderstorms are pushing a bit further south in central NY
early this afternoon than anticipated. This has kept
temperatures in check today across central NY with many
locations still in the 40`s and increasing skepticism that the
potential for severe weather will extent into our NY counties
at all.


However, 12Z model guidance still has CAPE advecting into NE PA
around 500 J/KG for a time late this afternoon and evening
coupled with a high shear environment. A line of showers and
thunderstorms along the front should develop near the NY/PA line
with the potential for severe thunderstorms. Quick organization
into line segments should keep the main threat as gusty winds
with a tornado or two not out of the question.

Previous...


A warm front is currently pushing through the area as of late
this morning with a low pressure system tracking across northern
NY. A band of showers with the warm front is still expected to
advance eastward with it. The narrow window of instability into
a high shear environment is still modeled to occur later this
afternoon and evening across NE PA. However, mesoscale modeling
is not as robust as runs yesterday with this potential
including the 12Z HRRR which just came in. Dewpoints only
getting into the low and mid 50`s is another cause of concern as
well along with the thick clouds across NY. While the potential
for severe weather continues some signs are showing up the
threat may end up lower later today.


405 AM Update...

A fast-moving area of low pressure moving over our area Sunday
will bring widespread showers, as well as strong to severe
thunderstorms. A first wave of showers will move through in the
morning across mainly Central NY. Later into the afternoon and
into the evening is when strong to severe thunderstorm develop
occurs. A line of thunderstorms will move west-northwest to
east-southeast starting between 2pm to 4pm over northern
portions of Central NY. As these storms progress south-
southeastward, they will move into a more favorable area for
severe development over the Southern Tier and Northeastern PA
between 4pm and 6pm. Steep mid-level lapse rates of 7 to 8.5, as
well as CAPE values of 500 to 700 Joules, and with shear around
30-50 kts leaves NE PA and the Southern Tier prime for severe
thunderstorm development Sunday evening. Damaging winds, hail
greater than 1 inch, and tornadoes are all possible in this
scenario for the Southern Tier and NE PA after 4pm.

Things will quiet down heading into Sunday night and into
Monday, with dry conditions expected and temperatures in the
mid-50s to low-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 PM Update...

High pressure will remain in control through Tuesday and most of
Tuesday night, keeping conditions dry and mild. Skies will stay
mostly sunny for most of the day, though cloud cover will increase
overnight as the next system moves in. A warm front approaches the
region Wednesday morning and passes through late in the day. Ahead
and along this front will be showers. Overnight, a cold front
approaches the region with more rain and a slight chance for
thunderstorms. Instability looks limited, so there is not a concern
for strong thunderstorms at this time.

Highs will be in the 60s both days. Lows Tuesday night will be in
the 30s and 40s but milder conditions are expected Wednesday night
as temps only fall into the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 PM Update...

Showers continue during the daytime hours Thursday as the cold front
passes through. An upper-level low over Central Canada will drift
eastward late in the week. Prior to its arrival, there will likely
be a break as a ridge of high pressure makes a quick appearance
Thursday night into Friday morning, though have kept a chance for
showers in there for timing differences between guidance. There is
quite a bit of uncertainty as to what happens with this upper low.
With it will be a stronger cold front that brings much cooler air
into the region. Some lake showers will develop behind the front.
Despite cooler conditions, temperatures should remain warm enough
for just rain. Similarly to the previous forecast, mentionable PoPs
are present Friday and Saturday. After that, PoPs are just a slight
chance as drier conditions work into the region Saturday night into
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR with brief MVFR/IFR showers through mid afternoon at
all TAF sites. A band of showers and scattered thunderstorms
looks to develop somewhere between KITH/KRME line to a KELM/KBGM
line. The highest likelihood of any thunderstorms is still at
KAVP where the potential for gusty winds is present with timing
in the TEMPO from about 21-01Z that will be narrowed a bit with
future AMD`s.

MVFR ceilings are likely to form tonight for all NY TAF sites
overnight then slowly lift to VFR by 16Z or so on Monday.


Outlook...

Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday through Friday: Chance of showers each day with
restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL
NEAR TERM...AJG/KL/MWG
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MWG