Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 241950
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
350 PM EDT Sun Mar 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Clear skies and light winds will bring seasonably cool temperatures
tonight. Dry conditions, along with a moderating trend in
temperatures will continue for Monday and Tuesday, before another
system will bring a chance for rain showers for the middle of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
330 PM Update...

Lingering lake effect clouds have dissipated this afternoon with
abundant sunshine returning to the region. Northwest flow keeps
temperatures cool for one more day as highs are expected to
climb into the low 30s to low 40s. Overall conditions remain dry
for the region as high pressure remains in control. Clear and
calm conditions are expected to continue into the overnight
period. We could see temperatures falling into the single
digits over Oneida county. Central NY will see temperatures
ranging in low to upper teens, meanwhile northeast PA will see
temperatures falling into the low to mid 20s. NBM temperatures
were too warm for this period, therefore used a blend of NBM and
NBM 10th percentile to cool temperatures.

After a cold start tomorrow, temperatures are expected to warm into
the upper 40s to low 50s as winds shift to the southeast. With a
surface high to our north conditions remain dry over our region with
minimal cloud cover. As the high slides to the east clouds begin to
roll in late Monday night. Temperatures overnight are expected to
fall into the upper 20s to low 30s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Tuesday, the larger scale shows a short wave feature ejecting
out of the plains and riding northeast reaching the Great Lakes by
Tuesday evening. The main long wave trough is still across the
Plains at this time hence the flow aloft with all be south to
southwest as this short wave rides northeast Tuesday. The low-level
flow Tuesday will be south to southeast with mild air in place
across all of central NY and northeast PA. The 12z NAM shows a well
developed marine layer engulfing our whole forecast area to include
pretty much almost all of NY and PA BY Tuesday afternoon. The 12z
NAM holds the showery precipitation off until after 00Z Wednesday
with the weak front moving into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
However, the 12Z NAM does have some patchy drizzle. The 12Z GFS also
has significant low-level moisture affecting much of Central
NY/northeast PA as well. The 12z CMC is less aggressive with this
low-level moisture. The 06z Euro also shows a fair amount in the
morning which backs off in the afternoon. We will increase cloud
cover Tuesday to account for this marine layer. Except for the NAM
the other models don`t have the drizzle but do show showers with the
approaching front and short wave in the Great Lakes reaching into
western NY and PA late Tuesday. The GFS is fastest touching the
western Finger Lakes before 00z Wednesday. NBM has slight chance far
western Steuben Co which looks reasonable and will go with.

Then for Tuesday night, pre-frontal moisture works across central NY
and northeast PA. Model QPFs dry out some as this moisture outruns
its upper support initially. However, there will be at least some
scattered rain showers. NBM covers this well with scattered showers
overspreading all of central NY and northeast PA Tuesday night.

For Wednesday, cold front slowly presses east as the larger scale
trough moves into the Great lakes. Continued southerly moist flow
will bring more showers to the region Wednesday. Instability will be
lacking but guidance is suggesting a band of heavier rain sets up as
the front slowly moves into NY and PA Wednesday night. Axis of
heaviest rain at this point looks like it will remain east of our
forecast area but we will see high POPs for rain showers. Again
instability will be lacking so no thunderstorms expected. NBM looks
excellent for Wednesday and Wednesday night and will follow. No need
to depart from NBM at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
For Thursday lingering precipitation comes to an end as per
deterministic CMC, Euro and GFS. NBM holds on to chance of showers
longer which likely is reflected by the Euro ensembles. We will keep
chance POPs in our eastern areas and slight chance western forecast
area. For Thursday night, deterministic models show no precipitation
over central NY or northeast PA but NBM holds onto the slight chance
as uncertainties exist with a wave forming along the coast.

Then for Friday, northwest flow of colder air engulfs regions which
could lead to some weak lake response. The CMC shows this the best
but if anything forms it should be light given the fairly cold lake
temperatures and 850 temperatures only -5C or so. NBM holds onto a
slight chance POP for central NY Friday and we will keep.

For next weekend, models really diverge with the next system or lack
thereof coming into the Great Lakes. Uncertainities are large so we
will stay with NBM for now.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Brief MVFR ceilings are expected at BGM this afternoon due to
lingering lake effect clouds. Clouds are expected to mix out
this evening as the sun sets with VFR conditions returning to
BGM. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected at all terminals for
the entire period.

Northwest winds continue this afternoon becoming light and
variable overnight. Winds shift southeast tomorrow morning.


Monday through Tuesday...Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night...Occasional restrictions
possible in rain showers, especially during the day on
Wednesday.

Thursday & Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES
SHORT TERM...DJN
LONG TERM...DJN
AVIATION...ES


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