677
FXUS63 KBIS 100312
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1012 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for precipitation return at the end of the weekend.

- Near normal to above normal temperatures and more precipitation
expected next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1009 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Decided to go ahead and remove any mention of precipitation
across western and central North Dakota for the rest of the
night given the lack of any radar echoes or actual rainfall
observations. Otherwise, we just blended in the latest
observations to the going forecast.

UPDATE
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

No major changes were needed for this update. Thus far, we have
yet to see any appreciable showers coming from the cumulus
scattered across the area. The one exception may be the far
southwest where convection appears to be just a touch deeper.
Bowman radar does show a few weak echoes here so a sprinkle or
two may not be out of the question. Otherwise, it`s a beautiful
evening across western and central North Dakota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Diurnal cumulus clouds are filling in on satellite across western
North Dakota this afternoon. Based on soundings, these clouds are a
result of mid-level moisture. As the afternoon goes on, some of
these may become strong enough to produce showers, but any rain that
falls will have to overcome low level dryness to make it to the
surface.

Synoptically, the pattern is full of opportunities for precipitation
as shortwaves and clippers galore propagate through the region.
This weekend, northwest flow takes over briefly, followed by a
shortwave system mid-week next week. Temperatures through the
period will be in the 70s starting Saturday, some days
approaching 80 degrees along the South Dakota border.

The first system in the forecast after today`s frontal showers will
be a clipper system expected Friday. The precipitation zone looks to
be more in eastern North Dakota with this, but a scenario exists
where isolated showers could develop further west (20 - 30%
likelihood of occurrence). Regardless, this system`s main effect on
western North Dakota will be breezy northwesterly winds. This raises
some concerns for fire weather as the atmosphere mixes and RHs drop
into the 20% range, but recent precipitation means fuels have
greened up a bit so unsure how significant the low RHs and breezy
winds will be.

Precipitation chances increase once again to start the work week, as
a train of shortwaves seem to blend into each other through mid-
week. Probabilities of >= 0.1" Monday morning through Wednesday
morning are 70% across western North Dakota, but once those
probabilities increase to half an inch over the 48 hour period, the
likelihood drops to 20 - 30%, with the higher probs in that range
being in the James River Valley and in a pocket around Minot. What
likely will occur is isolated showers and thunderstorms across the
region for those days. With probabilities for exceeding 500 J/kg
less than 20%, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely at this
time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the period.
There are currently some breezy northwest winds out there that
will diminish rapidly as we approach sunset. We will then see
winds increase again tomorrow afternoon. There is a very low
chance for a stray shower this evening.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ZH
DISCUSSION...FGF/AH
AVIATION...ZH