797
FXUS64 KBMX 140555
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1255 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 626 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

Only made minor changes to the temperature trends and rain chances
through tonight and tomorrow. The main change is reducing rain
chances across the area through the rest of the evening and
adjusting the timing of rain/storms moving in late tonight across
the south. The thunderstorm activity tomorrow may be more
scattered in nature initially, but may become more widespread
across the north during the afternoon.

25/Owen

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

Overnight tonight, another wave of storms moves through the
southern half of the state. High res models have been consistent
with strongest activity remaining south of Central Alabama and
along the coast where a boundary sets up and lingers. Scattered
moderate showers are possible in areas of I20 and south, with an
isolated thunderstorm possible in the far southern counties.
Little to no instability is present, though PW values will remain
high and shear will be in the 50-60 kt range through the night.
This activity is expected to begin shortly before midnight and
last through much of the morning. Models have been consistent
today with this activity remaining weak, with the storms along the
coast cutting off most of the convection across Central Alabama.
Recent model runs have been trying to hint at isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the northern counties of Central Alabama. Will
have to see how much activity develops across the Gulf to
determine how much coverage could develop across the state
overnight.

There should be a break in coverage through mid morning and early
afternoon, with isolated to scattered convection expected again
through the afternoon and evening, mainly across the northern half
of the state. PW values will be lower with this activity, only
around the 75th percentile for this time of year, and shear will
be slightly lower around 30 to 40 kts. The redeeming factor will
be the instability between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. With these
parameters, can`t rule out strong thunderstorms with a few
possibly becoming severe. Highs Tuesday should remain a few
degrees below normal again in the mid 70s to low 80s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

A few lingering storms Tuesday evening, with drier air overspreading
the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. An upper low tracking southeast
across eastern TN on Wednesday may bring a few showers across the
northeast counties of Alabama. Rain free conditions expected
Wednesday night and Thursday as the upper low pushes off the
Atlantic Coast. Another southern stream impulse will eject out of
the Southwest United States and across the Gulf Coast region
Friday and Saturday. With the slow progression of the upper trof
axis, several impulses will bring periods of heavy rainfall from
Louisiana to Alabama, with a threat of flooding.

58/rose

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2024

MVFR to isolated IFR conditions out there as the main bulk of the
rain will be at TOI and MGM. Some light rain/drizzle will be
possible in the northern sites before the upper low work into the
area this afternoon. Most areas will become VFR this afternoon,
with better rain chances, especially in the north, during the
afternoon. Could be some thunder around so included that in the
prob30 after 21z,

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered to numerous showers with few storms will overspread
Central Alabama later tonight and into Tuesday morning. Rainfall
amounts will be fairly light, generally less than one-quarter of
an inch in most areas. Scattered storms possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening with a chance of showers across the
northeast counties on Wednesday. Max RH tonight near 100 percent
and Min RH on Tuesday 70-75 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     77  61  80  58 /  80  60  30   0
Anniston    76  63  81  59 /  80  60  30   0
Birmingham  76  63  81  61 /  80  50  20   0
Tuscaloosa  78  63  83  61 /  70  40   0   0
Calera      76  63  81  61 /  80  50  10   0
Auburn      77  65  81  62 /  70  50  10   0
Montgomery  81  65  85  62 /  60  40   0   0
Troy        81  65  85  62 /  80  30   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...25
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...16