900
FXUS65 KBOI 112012
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
212 PM MDT Sat May 11 2024

.SHORT TERM...An upper level ridge over the area will allow clear
skies to continue tonight with light winds. Mostly sunny
conditions are expected again on Sunday with afternoon
temperatures running about 15 degrees above normal. Afternoon
high temperatures on Sunday will reach the mid 80s in most lower
valley locations of southwestern Idaho and southeastern Oregon.
Mountain communities will see temperatures peak in the upper
60s and low 70s on Sunday. A series of shortwave troughs will
pass along the northern periphery of the upper level high
beginning Sunday evening causing the ridge to flatten out a bit
on Monday. Moisture will also begin to increase on Monday which
will bring scattered clouds into the area and about a 20 percent
chance of showers to the southern most portion of the forecast
area near the Nevada border.

Meanwhile...93 million miles away on the sun...a large group of
sunspots continues to erupt solar flares associated with a
severe (G4) to occasionally extreme (G5) geomagnetic storm.
NOAA`s Space Weather Prediction Center, in Boulder, Colorado, is
carefully monitoring the situation and is indicating that the
Aurora may be visible again tonight in a large area of the U.S.
including southern Idaho and southern Oregon.

&&

LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...An upper level ridge will
remain centered over the eastern Pacific on Tuesday while a
shortwave trough drops south along the east side of the ridge. The
trough will move through the northern Rockies and clip our area.
This will produce a 5-15% chance of showers and thunderstorms across
central Idaho with dry conditions elsewhere. Northwesterly flow will
cool temperatures a few degrees, and the trough will produce breezy
conditions, especially across south-central Idaho. Despite the
cooling, temperatures will still be around 5 degrees above normal.
The ridge will build east on Wednesday, bringing dry and slightly
warmer conditions. Models have come into better agreement about the
pattern Thursday through Saturday, but differences remain. The EC
ensemble has trended closer to the GFS ensemble in showing the ridge
persisting across the Pacific Northwest, with most ensembles keeping
a trough to our northeast. Dry west to northwest flow aloft under
the influence of the upper level ridge would keep temperatures warm
with breezy winds and little chance of precipitation, with the
highest chances of rain (10-20%) across the northern mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR under clear skies through Sunday morning.
Increasing mid-level clouds across SE Oregon and far SW Idaho Sunday
afternoon with isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening.
Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt, strongest KMUO to KJER/KTWF, becoming
variable 10 kt or less this evening. Winds W-NW 5-15 kt on Sunday.
Winds at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt.

KBOI...VFR under clear skies. Surface winds: NW 5-10 kt, then SE
around 5 kt tonight.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....ST
AVIATION.....ST