Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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378 FXUS61 KBUF 111050 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 650 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and unsettled weather will remain in place through the weekend. Mostly cloudy conditions with scattered showers will persist across north central NY today. Further west, dry conditions this morning will turn wet as a cold front moves through the region this afternoon. A few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening. Showers will linger across the region tonight into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Satellite imagery shows areas of valley fog across interior portions of western NY this morning. Mostly clear skies outside of the valley fog will soon be replaced by high clouds ahead of the next system. It is quite the opposite east of Rochester/Genesee Valley where clouds and pesky showers will continue today. Moisture and remnants from a departing upper trough continue to support light showers east of Lake Ontario this morning. A downward trend should continue this morning, however pooled moisture and daytime heating will likely cause showers to redevelop by late morning. A shortwave ridge is across the forecast area this morning. Light winds and clear skies led to radiational cooling across interior portions of western NY overnight. Valley fog will dissipate by mid-morning. Attention turns to a robust shortwave trough across the Upper Great Lakes region this morning. An associated surface low near Lansing, Michigan with a trailing cold front will move east today. Regional radar shows an area of showers with a few thunderstorms along the cold front. Modest moisture and strong lift will shift east and showers will hold together and enter western NY between 12-4PM today. SPC HREF and forecast soundings show weak instability developing today and a few thunderstorms can`t be ruled out across western to central NY. The system will begin to weaken and showers and any thunderstorms will move into the Finger Lakes region and north central NY into early evening. Cool today with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. The surface low will continue to weaken as it moves into western NY tonight. Showers will become disorganized but linger overnight. It looks like some drier air moves into the Niagara Frontier late tonight which may give some breaks in the cloud cover but overall, a cloudy night. Lows will fall into the mid to upper 40s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Shower activity will linger into Sunday morning as a mid-level low crosses the region. Showers will diminish from west to east as the mid-level vacates the region Sunday afternoon/evening. A cooler airmass will linger across the region will afternoon highs only reaching the lower 60s, with upper 50s across higher terrain. Dry weather returns Sunday night as shortwave ridging builds in behind the departing mid-level low. Warmer conditions develop Monday ahead of an approaching cold front with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s within the warm sector. The nearing cold front will increase chances for showers and a few thunderstorms as forcing and diurnal instability increase. Showers and thunderstorms chances will continue Monday night as the frontal boundary slowly pushes through the region. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A closed mid-level low centered over the Hudson Bay Tuesday morning will gradually rotate eastward into Wednesday. Meanwhile, ridging to the west across the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes Tuesday night will build across the remainder of the Great Lakes into Friday morning before the next trough dives southeast across the Central Plains Friday. Overall, with the mid-level closed low to the north of the area Tuesday, its associated surface low over Quebec will support a cold front to finish pushing southeast across the area Tuesday, supporting widespread rain and a few rumbles of thunder to pass across the area. Chances for showers will then continue across the area Tuesday night through Wednesday due to the troughing overhead. As the aforementioned mid-level ridging pushes east across the Great Lakes, associated surface high pressure will also move into the eastern Great Lakes, resulting in a period of dry weather Wednesday night thorugh much of Thursday. The next chance for showers will return Thursday night through Friday as warm front approaches the area. Expect a gradual warming trend throughout much of next week, with subtle warming each day. By the end of the week the temperatures will have rebounded to slightly above normal. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions across western and north central NY this morning. Areas of valley fog developed overnight across interior portions of the western Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region and IFR/LIFR conditions are present at KJHW. Visibility will improve by 10am. A cold front will approach the region today. Regional radar shows an area of showers and thunderstorms across Lower Michigan this morning. This activity will move into western NY this afternoon. Confidence is low to add TS into the TAF due to uncertainty in coverage. Additional showers will develop across north central NY ahead of the front. VFR conditions will deteriorate as showers move into western NY this afternoon. Widespread low-end VFR/MVFR conditions are likely with IFR conditions across the higher terrain including KJHW through tonight. VFR conditions will likely remain at KART today with flight conditions becoming MVFR late Saturday evening. Outlook... Saturday night...MVFR cigs with showers gradually diminishing in coverage. Sunday...VFR to MVFR CIGS with scattered showers. Monday and Tuesday...VFR/MVFR with the likelihood for showers and possible thunderstorms. Wednesday...Improving conditons with precipitation exiting. && .MARINE... Mainly light, variable winds (less than 10 knots) will be the rule through the most of the weekend, before a more pronounced southwesterly flow (10-15 knots) develops ahead of a warm front approaching from the west toward the tail end of the weekend. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSK NEAR TERM...HSK SHORT TERM...TMA LONG TERM...EAJ AVIATION...HSK MARINE...JM/TMA