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000
FXUS61 KBUF 102024
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
424 PM EDT Wed Apr 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
There will be a brief window of dry weather this evening, then
a warm front will move north across the area late tonight and
Thursday morning, with rain blossoming and moving north across
the area late tonight through Thursday morning. Periods of rain
will and gusty winds then continue Thursday through Friday
night. The rain may end as some wet snow Friday night through
early Saturday, especially across higher terrain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will move east and south of the area by early this
evening, laying out in an east-west orientation just south of
the area across PA. The exit of the front will provide a brief
window of dry weather this evening for most of the area.

Late tonight through Thursday...a strong southern stream trough
moving through the lower Mississippi Valley will phase with
another strong northern stream trough digging through the Upper
Midwest. The resulting deep full latitude trough will reach the
western Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by late Thursday. At the
surface, low pressure will move from the lower Mississippi
Valley tonight to the Ohio Valley Thursday morning, then to
western Lake Erie by early Thursday evening. Deep low/mid level
southerly flow ahead of the trough will transport abundant
moisture northward into the region late tonight through Thursday.

The stalled frontal boundary over PA this evening will accelerate
back northward as a warm front late tonight and Thursday morning.
Isentropic upglide and moisture transport will be enhanced by a 50+
knot southerly low level jet, supporting a rapidly expanding area of
rain moving from south to north across the area later tonight
through early Thursday. This east-west oriented band of rain may
briefly become moderate or even heavy as moisture pools ahead of the
strengthening low level jet and forcing rapidly increases. Some
elevated instability also develops, which may support some isolated
embedded thunder as well.

During the day Thursday, the initial warm front will continue north
across Lake Ontario and into Canada, with our region breaking out
into the warm sector of the deepening system. Ongoing warm advection
and moisture transport along with periodic fast moving mid level
vorticity maxima will continue to cross the region, producing a few
rounds of showers. Mid level drying and SSE downslope flow will also
support some dry periods as well between areas of showers.
Temperatures will likely rise into the lower 70s on the lake plains
in the afternoon with the boost of SSE downslope flow as long as
there are long enough breaks in the rain.

The strong low level jet and tightening pressure gradient will allow
winds to increase in the afternoon. Expect gusts of 30-40 mph
areawide. Gusts will likely be higher along the Lake Erie shore in
the downslope flow regime, at least up to 45 mph at times. There is
some potential of higher 50+ mph advisory gusts later Thursday
afternoon and evening along the Lake Erie shore, but the warm
temperatures and lack of a low level inversion may inhibit the
typical downslope process to some extent due to the lack of static
stability near the ridgetops.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A 990mb low found over Ohio will deepen to 985mb as it crosses
western Lake Erie Thursday evening and then slowly passes by just to
our west overnight. As the low begins the process of passing to our
west guidance continues to advertise a strengthening LLJ (65 to 70
knots) at 850H across the Finger Lakes and then into the North
Country. As was previously alluded to there will be the potential
for some strong gusty winds across the higher terrain and
potentially off the Tug Hill. That said...looking at BUFKIT sounding
profiles there really is not much of an inversion to speak of at
ridge top level. Also, there may still be some precipitation around
when the strongest winds arrive keeping the lower boundary layer
stable. Given these two issues we may not see the stronger winds mix
to the surface. For now, will continue to mention the potential for
strong gusty winds east of Lake Ontario in the HWO.

Otherwise...as the low passes to our west it will drag its cold
front east reaching far western New York early Friday morning. After
a brief lull (dry slot) or decrease in shower coverage we should see
a gradual uptick in shower activity again across the region.
Additionally, with the frontal passage Friday southwest flow will
strengthen within the CAA regime. We could even see some gusts up to
45 mph especially northeast of the lakes. In terms of temps...there
will be a large spread with upper 40s across the hilltops of the
western Southern Tier, while highs in the mid/upper 60s across the
lower terrain of the North Country will occur earlier in the day.

A secondary front and the axis of the mid-level trough swings
through Friday night brining widespread showers to the region. With
850H temps falling to -4C/-5C aloft with the core of the trough
overhead we could see a few wet flakes across the higher terrain.
Lows will be found in the upper 30s to around 40F.

The mid-level trough slowly begins to pull away Saturday from the
region. We should see a slow but gradual decrease in showers from
west to east for western New York. Showers (mixed with snow in the
morning) will linger the longest east of Lake Ontario closer to the
support of the departing mid-level trough. The drying trend
continues Saturday night with just some lingering light showers
still possible early east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As we move into the latter half of the weekend...weak/transient
surface-based ridging will quickly slide off to our east between
later Saturday night and Sunday...allowing a weak surface low and
its attendant warm front to quickly approach our region. Increasing
isentropic lift and deepening moisture associated with these
features will bring increasing cloud cover and shower chances back
into our region for Sunday and Sunday night...with enough weak
instability even present to support the potential for a few isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms south of Lake Ontario.

Following the passage of this weak system...another round of weak
surface-based ridging will slide across our area Monday and Monday
night and bring another brief interlude of mainly dry weather.
Another (and notably stronger) cutter-type low will then track from
the central Plains States to western Ontario Province Tuesday and
Wednesday while ushering in our next general chance of showers.

With respect to temperatures...these should average out a solid 5 to
10 degrees above normal for the first half of this period...before
trending even more strongly above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday
as the aforementioned cutter low spreads even warmer air across our
region.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
There will be a brief dry period this evening, then a warm
front will accelerate northward across the region late tonight
and Thursday morning. Expect an area of rain to rapidly expand
and move south to north across the area later tonight through
Thursday morning, with a few hours of moderate rain possible as
it moves north. CIGS will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR as the warm
front crosses the region late tonight and Thursday morning.

The warm front will move north of the area by midday Thursday,
allowing the warm sector of a low to our west to become established
across the area. Expect the rain to become more intermittent
Thursday, and CIGS will also improve to VFR across the lower
elevation lake plains as SSE downslope winds increase in the
afternoon. It will turn quite windy in the afternoon, with gusts of
25-35 knots areawide, and possibly approaching 40 knots near the
Lake Erie shore.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...MVFR/IFR with occasional showers
and possibly a thunderstorm.
Friday night...MVFR/IFR with rain, mixing with wet snow
overnight.
Saturday...MVFR/IFR early with rain/snow showers, gradually
improving to VFR.
Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm.
Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong low pressure system will move from the Ohio Valley Thursday
morning to western Lake Erie by Thursday evening, then continue
north across Lake Huron Thursday night before reaching western
Quebec Friday. This will produce a period of moderate east to
southeast winds Thursday through Thursday night. There may be a few
gusty thunderstorms Thursday evening as well, mainly on Lake Erie.

A cold front will cross the region Friday, with moderate to strong
southwest winds behind the front Friday becoming west Friday night
through Saturday, with an extended period of high end Small Craft
Advisory conditions.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for
         LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock