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000
FXUS61 KCAR 241015
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
615 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will cross the area today then continue into the
Maritimes this evening as a cold front following the low pushes
offshore. High pressure will build across the region Thursday
into Saturday. A warm front will approach Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:10 AM Update...Radar currently shows a narrow band of rain
extending from northwestern Piscataquis County northeast across
the St. John Valley. The latest high resolution models show
this band remaining nearly stationary and then pushing east this
afternoon. Meanwhile, an area of rain further south should be
pressing east into southern parts of our region. Modified rain
coverage to reflect these trends.

Previous discussion...
Low pressure will push east into our area today ahead of a small
but vigorous upper trough pushing across Quebec. Rain, supported
by lift out ahead of the upper trough and surface convergence
with the surface low, will push into western areas early this
morning then reach the east by late morning. This will be a
light rain with amounts ranging from a third of an inch over
the north to less than a tenth of an inch Downeast. As the low
continues east into New Brunswick late this afternoon, colder
air will surge in behind the low changing the rain over to snow
around early afternoon in the northwest and late afternoon in
the northeast. The snow will taper off early this evening. Snow
amounts up to an inch are possible over the north, mainly on
grassy surfaces, with a little over an inch possible over
higher elevations.

Low pressure will continue away through the Maritimes tonight as
a quick surge of cold air rushes in behind the low on gusty
northwesterly winds. Lows by morning will range from near 20
over the north to 30 along the coast. A gusty northwesterly wind
will continue all night keeping the air well mixed as the sky
becomes clear over central and southern areas and partly cloudy
across the northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Surface/upper level low pressure will exit across the Maritimes
Thursday. A disturbance rotating around the upper low will clip
the region early Thursday. The disturbance could bring the
slight chance of a snow shower to northern Aroostook county
early Thursday. Otherwise, high pressure will build toward the
region Thursday with partly/mostly sunny skies north with
mostly sunny skies Downeast. The pressure gradient between the
exiting Maritimes low and building high pressure will support
gusty northwest winds Thursday. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph are
expected into early Thursday afternoon, then decreasing late.
High pressure builds across the region Thursday night through
Friday night with mostly clear skies. Below normal level
temperatures are expected Thursday, with near normal level
temperatures Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will begin to slowly exit east Saturday, with a
warm front approaching Saturday night. Expect mostly sunny skies
Saturday morning, then partly sunny during the afternoon.
Clouds then increase Saturday night in advance of the
approaching warm front. Could also have a slight chance/chance
of rain showers late. The warm front stalls across the region
Sunday. Expect a chance of showers with the stalling front
Sunday. However, slowly exiting high pressure should help to
limit the shower coverage. The boundary should begin to lift
back north Monday, while high pressure remains ridged across
the Maritimes. A chance of showers will persist Monday. Low
pressure will begin to approach, from the west, later Monday
night into Tuesday. Rain chances increase Monday night into
Tuesday, with a steadier rain possible. Near normal, to slightly
above normal, level temperatures are expected Saturday through
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR conditions will drop to MVFR late this morning
then IFR this afternoon in rain, and some snow north. Conditions
will likely improve to MVFR then VFR tonight, first Downeast
then across the north. Winds will be light southerly today then
strong gusty northwesterly tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday...Occasional MVFR possible with a slight chance of snow
showers across northern areas early. Otherwise, VFR. Northwest
winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 to 30 knots,
diminishing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to around 20 knots.

Thursday night through Saturday..VFR. West/northwest winds 5 to
10 knots Thursday night, then around 10 knots Friday. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots Friday night through Saturday.

Saturday night...VFR early. VFR/MVFR late with a slight chance
to chance of rain showers. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers. South/southeast
winds 5 to 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Winds will be below SCA today then increase to a
strong SCA tonight in gusty NW winds following a cold frontal
passage. Seas will build up to 5 ft today then 6 ft tonight.

SHORT TERM: Small craft advisory level conditions expected
into Thursday. Winds/seas then below small craft advisory
levels Thursday night into Friday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
     Thursday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Bloomer
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Bloomer/Norcross
Marine...Bloomer/Norcross