340
FXUS62 KCHS 300221
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1021 PM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through much of the week. A weak
disturbance will move through Tuesday and Wednesday, then a
weak cold front will stall in the vicinity this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Late this evening: Overall, the rest of overnight is expected
to be quiet as the area remains under the influence of high
pressure parked over the Atlantic. Cirrus could start to
increase late tonight ahead of an approaching shortwave, but for
the most part we should see mostly clear skies. Model guidance
indicates the potential for a corridor of showers to develop
offshore within an area of weak convergence, mainly late tonight
closer to sunrise Tuesday. But none of this is expected to
impact land areas. Lows are forecast to range from the upper 50s
inland to the low 60s along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper shortwave will pass across the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night and provide a bit more active weather than recent
days. The first half of Tuesday is expected to be mostly dry
then there will be an uptick in convective coverage as we move
into the afternoon and persisting through the evening and the
overnight. Less coverage is expected on Wednesday as the upper
wave shifts offshore, but a surface trough lingering in the
vicinity could still trigger isolated to perhaps scattered
showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures generally peak in
the mid 80s inland of the beaches, while lows stay in the 60s.

Ridge builds over the region on Thursday which will act to
limit rain chances. It will be the warmest day of the set, with
highs reaching the upper 80s to near 90 away from the immediate
coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid level ridge extending across the region on Friday will
slide east over the weekend as a weakening shortwave moves in.
The surface pattern largely features high pressure although a
weak surface trough will linger in the area. These features will
support low-end rain chances (generally 20-30%) over the
weekend, with the highest coverage inland.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV
through 00z Wednesday. We could see stratocumulus spread onshore
Tuesday morning, potentially producing a period of VFR ceilings.
Otherwise, attention turns to the shower and thunderstorm
potential Tuesday afternoon and evening. Through the end of the
00z TAF period, the best chances of showers and thunderstorms
should be along or west of KSAV. If a shower or storm were to
reach KSAV, it would be in the last couple hours of the TAF
period. Therefore we have kept any mention of impacts out of
this TAF issuance.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: High pressure centered across the western Atlantic
will extend across the region, maintaining quiet marine
conditions across local waters. In general, winds will remain at
or below 10-15 kt, slightly veering to south-southeast
overnight. Seas will range between 2-4 ft, largest across
offshore Georgia waters.

Tuesday through Saturday: Atlantic high pressure will remain
the dominant feature Tuesday through Saturday, with winds
generally no higher than 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. A moderate
coastal sea breeze will develop each afternoon.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...BSH/ETM
MARINE...DPB/ETM