National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS61 KCLE 242301
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
701 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build over the southern Great Lakes tonight
through Thursday before drifting east off the coast of New
England by Friday night. A warm front will lift across the area
late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track for this evening. Drier air
continues to slowly erode the cloud shield, with lakeshore areas
beginning to see some sunshine. This will continue over the next
few hours allowing the clouds to erode slowly from NW to SE.
Lingering drizzle at KERI and surrounding NW PA should
dissipate by 01Z, but it may take until after 04Z to clear out
the clouds there.

Original Discussion...

High pressure will build south across the region this evening
into tonight and lake-enhanced clouds will quickly clear from
north to south this evening with dry weather continuing through
the remainder of the near term period.

The main concern for the next two days will be frost/freeze
potential. The best chance of frost/freeze will be tonight with
continued cold air advection in addition to radiational cooling
as both cloud cover and winds diminish. Overnight lows across
nearly the entire area will dip into the upper 20s to lower
30s. There`s still some uncertainty in the cloud cover in
southeastern zones (there will be a tight mid-level cloud
gradient and 850mb moisture may be slow to decrease overnight)
which could result in slightly warmer temperatures than
currently forecast. Temperatures will also be a few degrees
warmer (perhaps as warm as the mid 30s) right along the
lakeshore, however locations just inland will most likely be
below freezing. Regardless, at least a few spots in the "zones
of uncertainty" should drop to or below freezing late tonight
and early Thursday morning and there should be widespread frost.
A Freeze Warning goes into effect at Midnight tonight and will
continue into Thursday morning.

Temperatures begin to recover on Thursday as the high settles
over the region with highs reaching the mid to upper 50s.
Northeasterly winds increase Thursday afternoon which will
likely advect cooler temperatures in the mid to upper 40s into
locations downwind from Lake Erie. Overnight lows will fall into
the low to mid 30s Thursday night and radiational cooling will
result in areas of frost. Can`t rule out a Frost Advisory during
this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to drift off the New England Coast on
Friday as a low pressure continues to develop over the central US.
With a lingering upper level ridge, much of Friday morning and
afternoon should remain dry, although some mid to upper level clouds
will likely build in ahead of an approaching warm front. Ahead of
the warm front Friday evening, scattered shower and thunderstorm
development is possible with an upper level divergent pattern over
the area coupled with some frontogenetic forcing. At this point, not
expecting anything severe with limited instability and timing
remaining in a diurnally unfavorable period. The biggest shift with
this approaching warm front will be temperatures climbing into the
upper 60s to low 70s on Friday with overnight lows only falling into
the low to mid 50s with a surge of WAA.

By Saturday afternoon, the aforementioned warm front should lift
north of the area as the parent low moves into the western Great
Lakes region. This will allow the corridor of likeliest
precipitation to shift north as well. There does remain a non-zero
chance of scattered storms on Saturday as moisture couple with
support from a LLJ and a diurnally favorable environment may be
enough to generate a few additional storms. In addition, with the
LLJ of 35-40 knots over the area and mixing layer heights 2kft,
gusty winds are expected at the surface with sustained winds of 15-
20 knots, gusting up to 30 knots, especially in any showers that
develop. This general pattern is expected to persist through
Saturday night. With strong WAA in place, highs on Saturday will
climb into the low 70s for eastern counties, but will approach 80 in
the western counties. Overnight lows will be warm, only falling into
the upper 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A surface high and associated ridge aloft will stick around for much
of Sunday and Sunday night as another low pressure develops over the
central US. With lingering moisture over the area and increased
diurnal instability, wouldn`t be surprised to see isolated, weak
convection Sunday afternoon, but things should diminish for Sunday
night. Highs on Sunday are expected to be well above normal,
climbing into the upper 70s to low 80s for the entire area.

On Monday, the aforementioned low pressure will move into the
western Great Lakes region, slowly moving the associated cold front
towards out area. Ahead of the boundary, upper level forcing will
aid in shower development, although widespread shower development
isn`t expected until Monday night into Tuesday when the front moves
east. There remains some model divergence primarily in the timing of
the low progression, which may result in the timing of the front and
best chance of rain changing. High pressure is forecast to push
north over the area by Tuesday evening and into Wednesday, although
with weak forcing aloft have opted to maintain a slight change of
precipitation across the eastern CWA through Wednesday.

Temperatures Monday through Wednesday will likely also remain above
average, climbing into the 70s everyday, with the warmest day
expected on Monday ahead of the cold front. Overnight lows will drop
into the 50s most days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Wednesday THROUGH Monday/...
MVFR/IFR will persist through this afternoon before high
pressure begins to build south over the area. Expect rapid
clearing from north to south this evening into tonight and
ceilings should quickly improve to VFR. The high will settle
over the region through the remainder of the TAF period,
resulting in continued VFR through Thursday.

Outlook...Non-VFR may return in periodic showers and
thunderstorms Friday evening through Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
As high pressure has begun to move east across Lake Erie this
afternoon, winds from the north have weakened to 10-15 knots and
will continue to weak to 5-10 knots from the northeast tonight
allowing waves along the shoreline to fall below 4 feet. As a
result, the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled.

The aforementioned high pressure will persist over Lake Erie through
Friday night before it shifts east off the New England Coast. Winds
on Thursday will remain 10-15 knots from the east-northeast, before
an increased pressure gradient results in winds increasing from the
east at 15-20 knots on Friday afternoon. On Friday night into
Saturday, winds will gradually shift to become southerly as a warm
front lifts north across the area. As a result, there may be an
additional Small Craft Advisory needed Friday afternoon through
Saturday, with winds over 20 knots being the primary concern as
offshore flow should keep the largest waves along the northern
lakeshore. By Sunday, Lake Erie will reside in the warm sector of a
low centered over the central US, which will shift winds to become
southwesterly and weaken to 10-15 knots. These winds will linger
into the first part of next week as a surface trough resides over
the area. In addition, there is a chance of thunderstorms over Lake
Erie with each frontal passage, but confidence in extent and timing
for convection is low at this time.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Thursday for
     OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Thursday for
     PAZ001>003.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maines
NEAR TERM...Garuckas/Maines
SHORT TERM...Campbell
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...Maines
MARINE...Campbell