034
FXUS64 KCRP 151736
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1236 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Deterministic runs predict an upper subtropical jet streak to
enter the CWA today. The NAM/GFS predict PWAT values to increase
above normal this afternoon near the Rio Grande. The combination
of the foregoing may result in isolated convection over the Rio
Grande Plains by late this afternoon/early evening. SPC places
the Rio Grande Plains in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms
on Day 1 (The NAM predicts CAPE values to increase to nearly 3000
J/kg at LRD by 21z today). An upper level disturbance is predicted
to approach the Four Corners Region today then enter TX Thursday.
In addition, moisture will continue to increase tonight/Thursday,
with PWAT values well above normal Thursday afternoon. The
combination of upper forcing and copious moisture will contribute
to scattered convection Thursday, mainly over the Coastal
Plains, with the greatest likelihood over the Victoria Crossroads.
Concur with SPC which places the approximately northeast 2/3 of
the CWA in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms (The NAM
predicts CAPE values to peak 3000-4000 J/kg over much of the
CWA, along with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg). With respect to
Fire Weather, anticipate that breezy onshore flow over the CWA
along with low relative humidity values, will result in an
Elevated risk of fire weather conditions this afternoon over
portions of the Rio Grande Plains/Brush County. Based in part on
the application of the expected winds/sea state to the local
expert system, will maintain a Moderate risk of rip currents today
through Thursday. Patchy to areas of radiation fog early this
morning, consistent with select thermodynamic profiles per the
LAPS (very thin layer of moist air near surface, followed by dry
air aloft). Anticipate mainly stratus clouds tonight/early
Thursday owing to wind.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Key Messages:
- Low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday night
through Friday.
- Elevated heat concerns possible early next week for the Brush
Country and southern Coastal Plains.

A low chance (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorm will continue
Thursday night and through the day Friday. This activity will be
facilitated by mid-level shortwave progression and ample low-level
moisture with PWATs around 1.5-2.0 inches. Additionally, strong
instability will be present with SBCAPE values exceeding 3000 J/kg
across portions of South Texas. As we progress into the day Friday,
the chance for precipitation will be further influenced by an upper-
level trough ushering a surface low pressure system and associated
cold front into Central Texas and possibly into South Texas. This
low would allow for enhanced low level convergence along the cold
front, providing lift for convective development. In light of the
considerable instability and favorable low-level moisture, SPC has a
Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) in place for severe thunderstorms
on Friday for the Victoria Crossroads and a small portion of the
northeast Coastal Bend.

Looking ahead past this rainy spell to the weekend and early next
week, mid and upper-level ridging will set in from the west,
ushering in a period of dry weather with a steady warming trend.
Daytime highs are forecasted to climb from the upper 80s to upper
90s on Friday, reaching the upper 90s to low 100s through the
remainder of the long term period. These temperatures coupled with
high humidity levels will allow for heat indices to soar close to
110 degrees over portions of South Texas, specifically the Brush
Country and southern Coastal Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue today through this
evening. Clouds will begin increase after midnight with sites
transitioning to MVFR, with a low chance of IFR conditions at ALI
and VCT. There is a medium chance of patchy to localized dense
fog developing at ALI and VCT, therefore, went with a tempo at
this time. If fog does develop, it should dissipate by 14/15z
tomorrow morning. The expectation is that MVFR ceilings will hang
around through 18z tomorrow, however, there is a low chance that
sites could improve to VFR by the 16-18z tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Generally weak to moderate onshore flow today and tonight, except
for predominately moderate onshore this afternoon and evening over
the southern bays and southern nearshore coastal waters. Generally
moderate onshore flow Thursday, as an upper level disturbance
approaches from the west. The approach of the upper system and
increasing moisture will contribute to isolated showers and
thunderstorms Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected Thursday night through Friday. Weak to
moderate onshore flow will continue through the weekend, with
periods of more moderate flow expected early next week across the
southern bays and nearshore waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    90  78  92  77 /   0  10  30  10
Victoria          91  72  88  75 /   0  10  60  30
Laredo            99  79 101  75 /   0  20   0  10
Alice             94  76  95  75 /   0  10  30  10
Rockport          87  78  88  78 /   0  10  30  10
Cotulla           97  77  97  75 /   0  10  20  10
Kingsville        91  77  93  76 /   0  10  20  10
Navy Corpus       87  79  89  80 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WC
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...JCP/84