Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
014 FNUS28 KWNS 052025 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z Critical fire weather conditions will persist into the middle of the work week across the southern High Plains where fuels are currently the driest across the country. A broad swath of westerly mid-level flow will remain in place across the central/southern Rockies through the middle of the work week in the wake of a progressive upper low (currently in place over the Great Basin). This will maintain a westerly downslope flow regime over the central/southern High Plains through at least D4/Wednesday before a cool, continental air mass overspreads the central/southern Plains. Elsewhere across the country, widespread precipitation chances and/or recent rainfall will limit fire weather concerns. ...D3/Tuesday and D4/Wednesday - Southern High Plains... Medium to long-range guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in the evolution of the synoptic regime over the southern CONUS. Persistent 40-60 knot mid-level flow is forecast to remain in place over NM/CO both days, which will maintain some form of lee troughing and breezy westerly pressure gradient winds. Little to no appreciable rainfall or moisture recovery of an antecedent dry air mass is expected through mid-week, and downslope warming/drying will promote afternoon RH minimums into the single digits to low teens both days across eastern NM and far western TX. Multiple preceding days of dry conditions will also favor an expansion of available fuels by Tues/Wed that should support the fire weather concern. Widespread critical fire weather conditions appear most probable across eastern NM/far western TX on D3/Tuesday when lee troughing is forecast to be strongest. Medium-range ensemble guidance shows fairly high (75%) probability for gradient wind speeds greater than 20 mph with stronger gusts likely. With confidence in critical wind speeds increasing, the 70% probability risk area has been extended southward into southeast NM and adjacent portions of far western TX. On D4/Wednesday, a cold front pushing into the south-central Plains will limit the potential for robust lee troughing, shunting stronger surface pressure falls southward towards the Rio Grande Valley. Breezy westerly winds will likely be confined to southern NM where the surface pressure gradient should be the strongest, though a few solutions hint that critical conditions may develop further north in the lee of more prominent terrain features. Beyond D4/Wednesday, a cooler continental air mass will continue to push into the southern Plains with weakening zonal flow aloft. Areas of dry/breezy conditions are possible, but will likely be confined to eastern AZ/southwest NM. Rain chances are forecast to increase towards the end of the work week across the Four Corners/southern High Plains, which should further limit fire potential. ..Moore.. 05/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$